820
FXUS64 KHUN 221015
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
415 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE MID/UPR 40S IN S/SE COUNTIES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PRESENT
DURING THE NIGHT TO OUR SE. HOWEVER, AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/PIEDMONT REGION, DEEPENING SE-S
FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS IS BEGINNING TO PUSH THIS CLOUD DECK
NORTHWARD. CONTINUED VEERING LOW-LVL FLOW JUST ALOFT DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOCUSED AROUND 800-900 MB. THUS, THE STRATUS
DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD AND ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE
AREA RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME REGIONAL
RADARS TO OUR SOUTH HAVE BEGUN TO INDICATED SPOTTY AREAS OF -DZ.
DRIZZLE HAS NOT BEEN INTRODUCED INTO OUR FORECAST YET FOR TODAY,
BUT WOULD TEND TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY IF IT MANIFESTS. CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT WARMING, BUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S APPEAR LIKELY
DESPITE THE CLOUD PRESENCE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VERY LOW CHANCES (MAINLY 20 TO 25%) ARE IN THE FORECAST AND MAINLY
FOR EXTREME NW ALABAMA AND OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN COUNTIES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ENDING. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THAT PERIOD. BUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE OR THERE
COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER, WE WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE SUNSHINE DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER ON TUESDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
EARLY CLOUD COVER LINGERING. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. HIGHS BY CHRISTMAS DAY WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, DESPITE SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A FEW
MODELS DO SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH IT, BUT NOT MUCH.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP
HIGHS A TAD INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM BEHIND IT INTO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE
ON ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KHSV, BUT MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMSL BY ~1500Z, WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
CEILING FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A DECK OF
LOW STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
GA, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NWRD. THE FOCUS FOR BETTER LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY AND EXTENDING INTO NW AL, BUT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE LOW CLOUD DECK AND MVFR CEILINGS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS, FAVORED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IMPACTS AT KMSL MORE
LIKELY THAN KHSV. STILL, KHSV WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KDW
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