229
FXUS64 KHUN 231005
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
405 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
- WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
AN EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH SOME RECENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE TODAY AS
PERIODIC BREAKS APPEAR IN THE CLOUDS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT COMPLETELY HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THE MOST RECENT MODEL SUITE INDICATES A GRADUAL NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION WITH THE CLOUD DECK, WITH INCREASING CLEARING ACROSS
ITS SOUTHERN EDGE. THUS, CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR MORE CLEARING
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS, CONTINUED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES
UPWARD, WITH HIGHS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST HIGHS WERE RAISED A LITTLE BASED ON
A CONTINUED WARNING TREND IN THE MODELS AND TEMPS LARGELY HIGHER
THAN EXPECTATIONS ALREADY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, SPOTTY RAIN/SHOWERS CAN BE OBSERVED IN REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY, BUT IT'S DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY SFC LOCATION THAT HAS
REPORTED RAIN OR PRECIPITATION AT THE SFC. THIS IS DUE TO A
LINGERING DRY SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
AROUND 20 DEGREES F ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. WHILE
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE DAY, THE PRECIPITATION-BEARING LAYER IS
SHALLOW AND THUS SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES IS MAINLY EXPECTED
FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE
ON LOCAL CONDITIONS THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE
OFTEN TIMES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WINTER ARE MET WITH SEVERE
WEATHER ON THE BACK END, THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS WARM WAVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT TIMES
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH GUSTS NEARING 20MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BUT NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
EVEN LOWER 60S FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPS PLUMMET DOWN INTO THE 20S BY MONDAY
MORNING. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. SO IF YOU LIKE WARMER WEATHER, ENJOY IT
WHILE IT LASTS!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
AN EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK WITH CEILINGS BROADLY IN MVFR
RANGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD DECK IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KHSV AND KMSL TAF SITES WITH PREDOM MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN
THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEGINNING TO BREAK UP GRADUALLY BETWEEN 18-00Z,
BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE, LLWS IS EVIDENT IN LOCAL
PROFILERS FROM MIPS AT NSSTC AND THE NEARBY ARM BANKHEAD
SITE...SHOWING SWRLY ~40KT WINDS AROUND 1-1.5 KFT. THERE IS SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM BUFR SOUNDING GUIDANCE, WHICH TENDS TO SHOW
THE LLWS BEGINNING TO WANE WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS, BUT OB PROFILERS
WILL BE MONITORED IN THE EVENT AN AMENDMENT IS NEEDED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...KDW
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