631
FXUS64 KHUN 231718
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1118 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
- WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH (CENTERED ACROSS
THE GULF) FOR THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AS A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST, NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE. IN THE LOWER-LEVELS, A SURFACE HIGH
(INITIALLY POSITIONED ACROSS GA) IS PREDICTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
MS/AL TONIGHT. WITH THIS CONFIGURATION PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT (IN THE
PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION), WE EXPECT LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THUS, WE HAVE MADE A MINOR INCREASE
IN POPS TO INDICATE RAIN CHANCES IN THE 5-15% RANGE (WITH HIGHEST
VALUES NORTH OF THE TN RIVER, WHERE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE KY-TN
BORDER OVERNIGHT MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL LIFT). CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK
TO REACH THE 65-70F RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF VALLEY LOCATIONS
TODAY (LOWER 60S IN ELEVATED TERRAIN). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND IN THE M-U 50S (LOWER 50S IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES).
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW, WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS
MAINTAINING A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE
EXISTENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION REGIME (DISCUSSED ABOVE), WE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A 5-15%
POP REGION-WIDE FOR SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THROUGH
0Z THURSDAY.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE REGION AND IN
THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD FROM
EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO (WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS (THURSDAY MORNING). THIS REGIME WILL BE REINFORCED ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER CYCLONE EVOLVES OUT OF
A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MIGRATES EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL DIMINISH AS THIS OCCURS, AN EVEN THICKER LAYER OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IS PREDICTED TO BLANKET THE TN VALLEY FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE M-U 50S
SUPPORTING WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M-U 50S (LOWER
50S IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
EVEN LOWER 60S FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPS PLUMMET DOWN INTO THE 20S BY MONDAY
MORNING. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. SO IF YOU LIKE WARMER WEATHER, ENJOY IT
WHILE IT LASTS!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
A BROAD DECK OF LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KHSV AND KMSL
TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS. BASED ON REGIONAL OBS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT IS THOUGHT THAT MVFR WILL DOMINATE THIS
MORNING, WITH BETTER CHANCES AT KMSL. A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE
RETURNING TO MVFR AFTER 06Z. GIVEN THE VARIABLE CEILING SITUATION
EXPECTED, AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE, LLWS APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN AT KHSV PER LOCAL
PROFILER DATA, WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT OBS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JAD/DD
SHORT TERM...JAD/DD
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...KDW
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