579
FXUS64 KHUN 251146
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
546 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 907 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
IT IS A BIT MORE COMPLEX DESCRIBING THE CURRENT SETUP ACROSS THE
AREA. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS, SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR. AN EXCEPTION WOULD INCLUDE A SOUTHWARD MOVING BAND OF HIGH
ALTITUDE CIRRUS NOTED FROM NW ALABAMA TO SOUTH OF ATLANTA, ALONG
WITH AN AREA OF STRATUS FROM NORTH OF LYNCHBURG TO ACROSS FAR NE
ALABAMA. A LACK OF MORE EXTENSIVE LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS
RESULTED IN A FORMATION OF FOG OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE FOG SO FAR HAS NOT BECOME DENSE IN MANY PLACES YET, THANKS IN
PART TO A LIGHT S-SW WIND. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF FOG BECOMING
MORE DENSE AND/OR WIDESPREAD; SOMETHING THAT WE WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE UNSEASONABLY MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUED, WITH
READINGS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH MORE
DIRECT SUN EXPECTED TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY SHOULD
SOAR INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS. NBM TEMPERATURES
LOOKED TOO COOL (LIKE WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY), SO BOOSTED THEM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. DESPITE THE WARMTH, OLD STANDING RECORDS OF
78/MUSCLE SHOALS AND 77/HUNTSVILLE, BOTH 2016 WILL BE CHALLENGED
BUT SHOULD REMAIN. BUT IF MORE DIRECT SOLAR INSOLATION IS OCCURS,
ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR EXCEEDED. MERRY
CHRISTMAS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
IN/OH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU. THE FRONT NEVER GOES FURTHER AND
BASICALLY WASHES OUT AS THE 5H AND 8H RIDGES OVER THE GULF OF
AMERICA AND GULF STATES REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS MAINTAINS SOUTHWEST TO WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE TN VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED AREAS OF MAINLY LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT TIMES, BUT
RAIN CHANCES STAY 20% OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS (UPPER 60S ATOP THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU) AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT BY
ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING, GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY. HAVE
NO FEAR THOUGH, IF YOU ARE TIRED OF THE WARMTH AND READY FOR WINTER
TO RETURN, IT WILL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL INCREASE TO 60-80%
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SHOULD DRY UP BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE MINIMIZED
ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT TIMING TRENDS HOLD AND THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 0.25" AND WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG, NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY THEN DROPPING TO THE 30S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
FOG HAS BECOME AN ISSUE, THANKS TO LONG NIGHTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES (CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT) AND LIGHT WINDS. OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO, CONDITIONS AT THE KMSL/KHSV TERMINALS HAVE
DETERIORATED DUE TO FOG FORMING. COMPLICATING THIS MATTER IS AN
AREA OF MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THESE LOW CLOUDS,
ALONG WITH SUNRISE AND STRONGER WINDS AFTERWARD SHOULD HELP
MINIMIZE FOG AS WE GO INTO THE LATER MORNING. FOR NOW, HAVE BOTH
TERMINALS PREVAILING AT MVFR WITH IFR REDUCTIONS, WITH THESE
VALUES ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR VSBY FLUCTUATIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
WINDS AND MIXING RAISING VSBY ABOVE 6SM. CLOUD BASES SHOULD ALSO
RISE, BUT WILL NOT GET TO VFR UNTIL THE MID AND LATTER AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING UPON HOW CLEAR SKIES BECOME LATE TODAY COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE FOG IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RSB
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