904
FXUS64 KHUN 260957
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
357 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 757 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING
NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER AND AROUND THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH TEMPERATURES AS WE NEAR 4 AM RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT S-SW WINDS. EARLIER IN THE LATE
EVENING, CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BUT STRATUS
WAS PRESENT ACROSS OUR MIDDLE TENNESSEE AREAS TO ACROSS NE ALABAMA.
THE PRESENCE OF THOSE CLOUDS THE MOST PART INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG, AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER - GIVEN THE LOWER 60S IN
FAYETTEVILLE AND WINCHESTER. WHERE IT WAS CLEAR, FOG DID FORM WITH
SOME OF IT LOCALLY DENSE. ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
IN FROM THE NW, AND HAVE ABOUT COVERED THE ENTIRE AREA. THUS FOG
THAT FORMED HAS DISSIPATED SOMEWHAT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR IN
GUNTERSVILLE WHICH IS MORE SHELTERED, AND MORE RECENTLY FORMED
OVER FORT PAYNE WHERE SKIES MORE RECENTLY CLEARED AND ALLOWED FOG
TO FORM.
THE PRESENCE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL HAVE A FEW "IMPACTS" FOR
TODAY'S FORECAST. PRIMARILY, IF THEY HANG AROUND THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING, THEY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A LOOK AT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 295K
REGION SHOWS MOISTURE IN THIS AREA RISING. THUS A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE
MIXING FROM DAYTIME HEATING BECOMES MORE PREDOMINATE. DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SO HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE TWO MORE WARM DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE NEXT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ENTER THE PLAINS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
ROBUST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. DESPITE POTENTIAL AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR HIGHS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE NEAR RECORDS DAILY VALUES.
RECORD HIGHS...
SATURDAY: HSV 77 IN 2015 MSL 78 IN 2015
SUNDAY: HSV 74 IN 2021 MSL 75 IN 1907
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH THE AREA
AND WE ARE DUE FOR A PRETTY RAPID CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND A COLD
WELCOME BACK TO WINTER. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE AFTERNOON AND
IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS, TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM BY THE
TIME THE RAIN ENDS TO RESULT IN ANY WINTRY MIX. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TIMING AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT FOR NOW WE CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND PLUMMET
DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP TO THE LOW TEENS TO PERHAPS SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE GRADIENT WINDS BEGIN TO SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S ON TUESDAY WITH A
DIP BACK TO THE TEENS/20S TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AT THIS
RANGE BUT GENERALLY FAVORS DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
COMPLEX CLOUD COVER WAS IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY FOR THE START
OF THE TAF. STRATUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SO FAR HAS HELPED TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSL. WITH MORE LOWER CLOUDS HEADED THERE,
WILL STAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY FRI.
A STEADY SW FLOW AROUND 5KT SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT
MINIMIZED. NOT THE CASE FOR KHSV, WHERE PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. MAINTAINED AN IFR FORECAST
FOR THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, WITH 1/4SM VSBY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AFTER 09Z, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS STRATUS MOVES
OVER THE TERMINAL. CONDITIONS AT KHSV SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE FRI, AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...RSB
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