366
FXUS64 KHUN 262344
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
544 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1043 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING
NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING IN THE
NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SINCE THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. LIGHT-MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL
MAINTAIN A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THE PERIOD, CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS (WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS) AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE/MIST (WHICH MAY ALSO LEAD TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY IN VALLEY AREAS). LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RISK FOR LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING (PERHAPS
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING). UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL 5-10 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS IN THE
M60S-L70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, NORTHWEST FLOW OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL
SUBSIDE AND BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MIGRATES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE VICINITY OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A SURFACE CYCLONE
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM
OF THE RIDGE) WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITHIN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO
OUR NORTH AND A HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF, BUT WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE CLOSE TO SUNSET AS THE LOW'S TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS
FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE OH VALLEY.
WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH A FEW LIGHT
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DEWPOINTS
IN THE U50S-L60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MLCAPE OF 50-100 J/KG. IF
SKIES MANAGE TO PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING, DEVELOPMENT OF
LOCALLY DENSE GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS, BUT
THE PREDOMINANT ISSUE FROM THE STANDPOINT OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
WILL BE THE LOW STRATUS LAYER AND DRIZZLE (WHICH COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN ELEVATED TERRAIN). HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
U60S-L70S ONCE AGAIN (SLIGHTLY COOLER IN ELEVATED TERRAIN), WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S (EAST) AND U50S-L60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BACK TO SSW AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS
SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS AN AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN KS INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MI. WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME ACROSS OUR REGION, A FEW LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK
500-MB WAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH MLCAPE IN THE 50-100 J/KG RANGE. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS, SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE L-M
70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE U50S-L60S.
MEANWHILE, BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A THIN LINE OF
CONVECTION IS PREDICTED TO INITIATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW (ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MO) AND DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
ARKLATEX THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. AS THE SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES A PHASE OF RAPID
DEEPENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT, THE COLD
FRONT AND STRONGLY FORCED BUT NARROW BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
(AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD, LIKELY
ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 7-8Z
AND EXITING BY 10-11Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S-L60S EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION, CAPE IN THE 200-400
J/KG RANGE COUPLED WITH A WSW LOW-LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KNOTS WILL
LIKELY YIELD STRONG-LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE RAPIDLY MOVING SQUALL LINE, ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL
TIMING MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES OUR REGION, THE RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO APPARENT
WITHIN FAVORABLY ORIENTED PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS WINDS VEER TO NW IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH A PERIOD OF COLD RAIN POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE L-M 40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 757 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH THE
AREA AND WE ARE DUE FOR A PRETTY RAPID CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND A
COLD WELCOME BACK TO WINTER. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON AND IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS, TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
TOO WARM BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS TO RESULT IN ANY WINTRY MIX. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIMING AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT FOR NOW WE CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY MENTION
OF FLURRIES OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
40S ON MONDAY AND PLUMMET DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO THE LOW TEENS TO PERHAPS
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER. BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADIENT WINDS BEGIN TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE 30S ON TUESDAY WITH A DIP BACK TO THE TEENS/20S TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AT THIS RANGE BUT GENERALLY FAVORS
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
MVFR TO VFR CIGS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A DENSE STRATUS DECK OVERSPREADS THE REGION. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS,
POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO LIFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH
BKN TO OVC SKIES EXPECTED, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. S TO SW WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page