097
FXUS64 KHUN 270939
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
339 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 900 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
COULD TIE OR BREAK RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
- HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL MOVE IN EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS WEST OF I-65.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ON MONDAY WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO THE LOW TEENS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
VERY MILD CONDITIONS FOR LATE DECEMBER CONTINUED OVER THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
AROUND 53. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT MUSCLE SHOALS YESTERDAY WAS
66 WHICH GAVE THEM A COOLING DEGREE DAY, VERY UNUSUAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH, A LIGHT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER FLORIDA HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE
MORE LOW ALTITUDE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THESE
CLOUDS IS GOOD, AS THEY GENERALLY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT
THIS MAY CHANGE AS WE NEAR DAYBREAK; FROM A SATELLITE VIEW THE
DENSER CLOUDS WERE MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE MS/AL BORDER. SOME OF
THE STATIONS WEST OF THERE WERE REPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG,
SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR AS THAT THINNING AREA MOVES EASTWARD.
DAYTIME HEATING REGARDLESS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE FOG THAT FORMS,
AND SOMEWHAT THIN THE STRATUS DECK. SKIES CLEARING WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER VERY WARM LATE DECEMBER DAY, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 70S. MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED COULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
MID 70S. STANDING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE: 78 IN
MUSCLE SHOALS AND 77 IN HUNTSVILLE, BOTH FROM 2015.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
TO OUR WEST, UPPER TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT AS SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE LOCALLY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
70S ON SUNDAY AND COULD ONCE AGAIN APPROACH OR BREAK THE RECORDS
OF 75 AT MSL AND 74 AT HSV. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
FRONT NEARS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT COULD
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 35MPH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH
RAIN AND LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM, THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS NW
AL, BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK LESS THAN FAVORABLE WITH
ENSEMBLE MEANS WELL BELOW 100 J/KG EVEN AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS, BUT FOR NOW
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
WINDS TAKE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL
BE A GOOD 25-30 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY, ONLY REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 40S BEFORE PLUMMETING TO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TEENS OR APPROACH THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. BE SURE TO GET THE HEAVY
COATS BACK OUT AND READY FOR NEXT WEEK, BECAUSE WINTER WILL SOON
RETURN!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK; HOWEVER, A
DECENT AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT OCCURS BY FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSUE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK UNTIL A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
THEN COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WITH THAT
SAID, IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER ANY DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT THAT EXISTS CURRENTLY (GREATER
UNCERTAINTY). STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER!
IN THE MEANTIME, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE THE
COLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STRUGGLE TO
WARM PAST THE 30S ON TUESDAY, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S
THAT NIGHT. AN EVER SO SLIGHT WARM UP IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS APPEARS TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET RIGHT BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MERELY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON FRIDAY. SINCE IT'S BEEN UNSEASONABLY WARM
RECENTLY, PLEASE DO NOT BECOME COMPLACENT - WINTER IS STILL HERE.
REMEMBERING COLD WEATHER SAFETY IS IMPERATIVE! REMEMBER TO PROTECT
THE 4 PS: PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STRATUS OVER THE AREA, WITH
VFR CLOUD BASES (GREATER THAN 3000 FT AGL) UNDER THEM. THESE CLOUDS
WERE BREAKING UP PER ANIMATION. IF THEY DO DISSIPATE, ENHANCED
RADIATIVE COOLING WITH TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS ALREADY CLOSE WILL
CONVERGE, AND COULD RESULT IN THE THE FORMATION OF FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK SAT. SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING THIS
WITH 100% RH AT THE SURFACE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. IN THE 06Z TAF,
HAVE WENT ON THIS ROUTE, BRINGING BACK IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY
REDUCTIONS IN A FEW HOURS, WITH POSSIBLY LOWER VALUES. RESTRICTED
CIG/VSBY WILL IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH MVFR CIGS
RETURNING AROUND NOON, AND VFR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT S-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT, SLOWLY INCREASING
TO AROUND 5KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RSB
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