776
FXUS64 KHUN 271554
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
954 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 954 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
COULD TIE OR BREAK RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
- HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL MOVE IN EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS WEST OF I-65.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ON MONDAY WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO THE LOW TEENS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
DENSE FOG THAT FORMED THIS MORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AREA. HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING
PATCHY FOG EXISTS THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AL AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS MORNING. AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES IN THE GULF, SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO INFLUENCE THE TN VALLEY. IN TURN, MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT
CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 70S BEFORE
DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY).
HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY OR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
OUR MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THIS, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF NW
AL IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER- WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD LESS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS TO FORM,
HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM BRINGING GUSTY WINDS UP TO
50-60 MPH AS SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR REMAINS PRESENT. LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO INSUFFICIENT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING, THEREFORE, A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL EXIST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GRADIENT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHER END
PRIMARILY BEING IN AREAS OF HIGHER ELEVATION IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. BEHIND THE FRONT, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY CLEAR
OUT AND THE SUN SHOULD RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
DESPITE THE SUNNY CONDITIONS, POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO PLUMMET INTO THE 30S-40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS.
BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP EARLY NEXT WEEK- WEARING MULTIPLE LAYERS AND
LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS.
THE LAST (AND LEAST IMPACTFUL) THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS WHETHER
OR NOT WE REACH RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE HSV RECORD IS
74 DEGREES (1907 AND 2021) AND THE MSL RECORD IS 75 DEGREES
(1907).
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK; HOWEVER, A
DECENT AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT OCCURS BY FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSUE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK UNTIL A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
THEN COME FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WITH THAT
SAID, IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO DECIPHER ANY DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT THAT EXISTS CURRENTLY (GREATER
UNCERTAINTY). STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER!
IN THE MEANTIME, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF NOTE WILL BE THE
COLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STRUGGLE TO
WARM PAST THE 30S ON TUESDAY, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S
THAT NIGHT. AN EVER SO SLIGHT WARM UP IS SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS APPEARS TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET RIGHT BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MERELY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON FRIDAY. SINCE IT'S BEEN UNSEASONABLY WARM
RECENTLY, PLEASE DO NOT BECOME COMPLACENT - WINTER IS STILL HERE.
REMEMBERING COLD WEATHER SAFETY IS IMPERATIVE! REMEMBER TO PROTECT
THE 4 PS: PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE REGION WAS DRIFTING TO THE EAST, NOW
MOVING EAST OF THE MS/AL BORDER. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE KMSL TERMINAL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE WITH THIS IS
LOW, BUT VSBY VALUES COULD RAPIDLY FALL AT KMSL EARLY IN THE TAF.
THE THINNING OF CLOUDS SHOULD REACH KHSV AROUND SUNRISE, WHICH
COULD HELP RETARD THE FOG FORMATION THERE. OTHERWISE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING, A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CIG/VSBY VALUES IS
EXPECTED AS WE GO INTO THE LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A STEADY SW AROUND 5KT LATER
THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP
HAMPER THE FORMATION OF FOG LATE IN THE TAF.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RSB
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