278
FXUS64 KHUN 280413
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1013 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1013 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (CAPABLE OF TYING OR BREAKING
RECORDS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS (ALONG A COLD FRONT) WILL CROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH
WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE 5-15F RANGE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY (EARLY THIS EVENING) WILL BACK TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TO 45-55 KNOTS BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
(INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES) DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ASSUMES A NEUTRAL TILT.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS, A DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
(ALONG THE CO-KS BORDER) WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CONFIGURATION
WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND DIRECTION VEERS TO SSW. A COMBINATION OF
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PATCHY/LIGHT DRIZZLE AND MIST WILL PERSIST
IN THIS REGIME, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE U50S-L60S.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS (M-U 60S IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN AND L-M 70S IN THE VALLEY), BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER IF THE STRATUS DECK
LIFTS AND SCATTERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON (AS INDICATED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS).
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE RELATED
SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MI. AS THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD, A THIN LINE OF LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON THE WIND SHIFT AXIS WILL ENTER OUR
CWFA BY 3-4Z MONDAY AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 7-8Z (PERHAPS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO). WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO TREND LOWER WITH CAPE (100-150 J/KG AT MOST), WE
EXPECT LITTLE (IF ANY) LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, WITH
THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PREDICTED TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE 45-55 KNOT RANGE TOMORROW EVENING, THIS THIN LINE OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SHOWERS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-55 MPH. SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS WILL VEER
SHARPLY TO NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
ALLOWING A COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SPREAD QUICKLY INTO THE
CWFA BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/POSTFRONTAL RAIN MAY
OCCUR, PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
IN OUR REGION WILL END QUICKLY BETWEEN 10-12Z (BEFORE PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX).
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ELEVATED WINDS (AND OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE
MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BRIEFLY TOUCH THE LOWER 40S BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S
TUESDAY MORNING (WITH ATTENDANT WIND CHILLS IN THE 5-10F RANGE IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN AND 10-15F RANGE IN THE VALLEY). AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT RISE OUT OF THE 30S, AND
WITH COMPETING INFLUENCES FROM LIGHT WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR
THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. ALTHOUGH A REINFORCING/DRY COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, WITH ONLY A MINOR DECREASE
IN DEWPOINTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD (FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY) AS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE AT THIS
POINT. HIGHS WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM FROM THE M-U 40S ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THE M-U 50S BY SATURDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FINALLY RISING
ABOVE FREEZING (AND INTO THE M-U 30S) BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
OBSERVED CONDITIONS AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS CONSIST OF A BKN-OVC
LAYER OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS (PROVIDING CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT AGL)
AND LGT SSE WINDS. OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING, THE BASE OF THE
STRATUS LAYER WILL DESCEND TO IFR-LEVELS, WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBY REDUCTIONS IN LGT DZ POSSIBLE BTWN 9-13Z. CEILINGS WILL RISE
BACK TO MVFR-LEVELS BY 15Z AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SSW AND
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTN, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 21Z AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 8G16
KTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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