486
FXUS64 KHUN 280940
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
340 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 340 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (CAPABLE OF TYING OR BREAKING
RECORDS) WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
- A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS (ALONG A COLD FRONT) WILL CROSS THE
REGION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
WINDS OF 45-55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH
WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE 5-15F RANGE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NE MONTANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SE
WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING. IT WILL HELP INDUCE TROUGHING THAT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOWER-48 AS WE GO INTO THE NEW WEEK.
SOUTH OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM, A SURFACE LOW NOW FORMING OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE DEEPENING. THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING.
BEFORE THEN, TODAY WILL BE A LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH FOR
A GOOD WHILE. WHETHER THE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OR BREAK UP, EXPECT
WARM CONDITIONS FOR LATE DECEMBER. EVEN WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN,
FORECAST HIGHS LATER TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S.
STANDING RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE 75/1907 IN MUSCLE SHOALS AND
74/2021 IN HUNTSVILLE, WHICH COULD BE GIVEN A CHALLENGE,
ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH
THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE REGION UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THE SYSTEM DEEPENING TO OUR WEST WILL INCREASE A PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT DAYBREAK WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 MPH RANGE IN
THE MID/LATE MORNING WHILE VEERING MORE TO A SW DIRECTION. A FEW
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE RELATED
SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MI. AS THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD, A THIN LINE OF LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON THE WIND SHIFT AXIS WILL ENTER OUR
CWFA BY 3-4Z MONDAY AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 7-8Z (PERHAPS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO). WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO TREND LOWER WITH CAPE (100-150 J/KG AT MOST), WE
EXPECT LITTLE (IF ANY) LIGHTNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, WITH
THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PREDICTED TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE 45-55 KNOT RANGE TOMORROW EVENING, THIS THIN LINE OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SHOWERS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-55 MPH. SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS WILL VEER
SHARPLY TO NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
ALLOWING A COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SPREAD QUICKLY INTO THE
CWFA BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/POSTFRONTAL RAIN MAY
OCCUR, PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
IN OUR REGION WILL END QUICKLY BETWEEN 10-12Z (BEFORE PROFILES
WOULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX).
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ELEVATED WINDS (AND OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE
MODIFYING ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BRIEFLY TOUCH THE LOWER 40S BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S
TUESDAY MORNING (WITH ATTENDANT WIND CHILLS IN THE 5-10F RANGE IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN AND 10-15F RANGE IN THE VALLEY). AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY NOT RISE OUT OF THE 30S, AND
WITH COMPETING INFLUENCES FROM LIGHT WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR
THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WILL EXIST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. ALTHOUGH A REINFORCING/DRY COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, WITH ONLY A MINOR DECREASE
IN DEWPOINTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD (FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY) AS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE AT THIS
POINT. HIGHS WILL PROGRESSIVELY WARM FROM THE M-U 40S ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THE M-U 50S BY SATURDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FINALLY RISING
ABOVE FREEZING (AND INTO THE M-U 30S) BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION
FORECAST REASONING. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO VFR-LEVELS IN
SOME LOCATIONS, WE EXPECT THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AND A RETURN TO
MVFR IS LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING (WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS IN LGT DZ POSSIBLE BTWN 9-13Z).
CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR-LEVELS BY 21Z AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO
8G16 KTS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. A
THIN BAND OF MOD-HVY SHRA ALONG THE COLD FRONT (POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS) IS PREDICTED TO REACH MSL/3-5Z
AND HSV/5-7Z FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO NW (WITH
POSTFRONTAL SPEEDS INCREASING TO 12G22 KTS).
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....70/DD
LONG TERM....70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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