535
FXUS64 KHUN 130609
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1209 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- A SLIGHT WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK, BEFORE LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY PRODUCING A BRIEF WINDOW
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO SOCIETAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
- PERIODIC ROUNDS OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
PUT ANOTHER LOG ON THE FIRE, AS IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED PRETTY QUICKLY SINCE SUNSET, AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO
15KTS DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. THOSE SW WINDS ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP
TEMPS WARM UP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT, WE WILL FINALLY HAVE LOWS HIGHER THAN FREEZING,
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THIS IS DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. A
TROUGH UP IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WE WILL SEE SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVE IN
HERE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THOSE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-70%)
WILL SLIDE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS, SUSTAINED ~10KTS AND GUSTING UP TO
15KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE WED EVENING
AND NIGHT, GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING IN THE FRONT FASTER, AND THEREFORE
PUSHING THE PRECIP OUT EARLIER TOO, IN THE EVENING HOURS. COLD AIR
WILL DIVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIP WOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AROUND MIDNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO NOT EXPECTED ANY IMPACTS WITH
THIS AS ONLY A TRACE TO A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES IS
EXPECTED, AND MAINLY FOR THOSE IN ELEVATED LOCATIONS. FOR THE
ROADWAYS, THE BRIEF WINDOW AND LIGHT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION,
STILL FAIRLY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY WINDS (WHICH
WILL HELP TO DRY OFF ROADS), SHOULD MITIGATE ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS.
BEYOND THIS, THE REST OF WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH
THOSE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PACK A PUNCH AS THURSDAY WILL BE BITTERLY
COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 30S. ON TOP OF THAT, GUSTY WINDS
WILL STILL BE PRESENT MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. ENSURE EVERYONE
IS BUNDLED UP IN LAYERS AND DON'T FORGET TO KEEP OUTDOOR PETS
WARM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES,
THIS SHOULD BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT LATER THIS WEEK. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP
JUST BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BUT MAINLY REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION, IT PUSHES A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST AHEAD
OF IT VIA NW FLOW. THROUGH FRIDAY, ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE
WELL NORTH OF TENNESSEE. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HOWEVER, THE
MOISTURE COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP US TAD COOLER THAN OTHERWISE,
BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME MORNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY NIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MAY BE PUSHING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND INTO NW ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. OVERALL,
WE WILL STILL BE IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIVERGENT
CONCERNING WHETHER WE SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS OR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK IF ONLY A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. KEPT WITH NBM (25 TO 30 DEGREES),
WHICH IS LIKELY ON THE COLDER SIDE, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED
UP WITH TIME.
WITH MOST GUIDANCE THE COLDER AIR DEFINITELY IS USHERED SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS (WHICHEVER ENDS UP BEING CORRECT). STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY, AS ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
COLD FRONT ROTATES SOUTHEAST AROUND THE MAIN PARENT LOW STILL OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER INITIALLY ON THE
DECREASE TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BETWEEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 40S AT BEST. GIVEN THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER, NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE HANDLING HOW COLD THE AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE. SOME MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CLOSE TO OUR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING, BUT MOST KEEP IT
EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL
PUSHES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING, AS AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BY SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY IN MOST AREAS, HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE 30S AT BEST. THIS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WHICH MIGHT SEE SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING. SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE EVEN
COLDER. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS (MAYBE A TAD
COOLER).
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER,
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DESPITE THE COLD START.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LIGHT/VAR WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING SW FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 17-20KTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR KMSL.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...25
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