581
FXUS64 KHUN 132330
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
530 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- A SLIGHT WARMER TREND TODAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
WEDNESDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY PRODUCING A BRIEF WINDOW
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
- PERIODIC ROUNDS OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY
PREVAILED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, WITH SW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH. THE
DAY WILL BE THE LAST "MILD" DAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, HIGH
RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW, AND COLDER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEFORE THEN, A LARGE FETCH OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS, WERE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD, AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AMPLIFIES. AT
THE MOMENT, NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
VALLEY TONIGHT, AS LOW TEMPERATURES COOL INTO MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. SHOWERS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE SE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IN PART
HELP TO AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN LOWER-48.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT. SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
IMPACTING THE NW PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING WED
MORNING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NW-SE DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AT AROUND 50
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES BRIEFLY WILL RISE FROM 50-90
PERCENT, LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN
INCH.
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA,
AND THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT, PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
FROM NW-SE WED EVENING. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NBM LOOK
UNREALISTIC IN ENDING THE PRECIP ABRUPTLY. WILL MAKE MINOR TRENDS
FOR A MORE REALISTIC APPEARANCE. AIR TEMPERATURES AS NEAR MIDNIGHT
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP BY
THIS TIME SHOULD BE OVER AND DONE WITH. A STIFF BREEZE OF 5-15 MPH
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO HELP TO DRY OUTDOOR
SURFACES, THUS NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOW
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY WILL CHILL INTO THE INTO
THE LOWER 20S. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME UPPER TEENS GIVEN HOW COLD
THIS NEXT ARCTIC PLUNGE IS.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES BUT VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THU WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 30S.
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
COUNTIES MAY NOT WARM ABOVE 30 DEGREES. A BRISK NW WIND OF 5-15
MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THU
NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES. THE BLENDS HAVE LIGHT WINDS IN
THE EVENING PICKING UP INTO THE 5 MPH RANGE IN THE OVERNIGHT. BUT
IF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, TEMPS COULD GO INTO THE MID TEENS BY FRI AM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW. AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION, IT PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF IT VIA NW FLOW. THROUGH FRIDAY,
ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF TENNESSEE. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE COLUMN LOOKS
TO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP US TAD COOLER THAN OTHERWISE, BUT WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FRIDAY NIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MAY BE PUSHING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND INTO NW ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. OVERALL,
WE WILL STILL BE IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EARLY IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY DIVERGENT
CONCERNING WHETHER WE SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS OR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK IF ONLY A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. KEPT WITH NBM (25 TO 30 DEGREES),
WHICH IS LIKELY ON THE COLDER SIDE, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED
UP WITH TIME.
WITH MOST GUIDANCE THE COLDER AIR DEFINITELY IS USHERED SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS (WHICHEVER ENDS UP BEING CORRECT). STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY, AS ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
COLD FRONT ROTATES SOUTHEAST AROUND THE MAIN PARENT LOW STILL OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER INITIALLY ON THE
DECREASE TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BETWEEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 40S AT BEST. GIVEN THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER, NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE HANDLING HOW COLD THE AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE. SOME MODELS BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CLOSE TO OUR
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING, BUT MOST KEEP IT
EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL
PUSHES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING, AS AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BY SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY IN MOST AREAS, HIGHS LOOK TO ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE 30S AT BEST. THIS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WHICH MIGHT SEE SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING. SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SHOULD BE EVEN
COLDER. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS (MAYBE A TAD
COOLER).
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER,
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DESPITE THE COLD START.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY 23RD AND 24TH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLOUDS AS WELL AS LLWS (FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS) AT
BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LLWS IS FORECAST
TO SPAN FROM 2/4Z UNTIL 12/13Z TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS LOWER VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS (TO LIFR) BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST; HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....KTW
CLIMATE...26
AVIATION...26
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