272
FXUS64 KHUN 140820
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 935 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN TODAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR
ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
- MONITORING FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF WINDOW OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
- PERIODIC ROUNDS OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
CURRENT TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WORKS TO ADVECT BETTER MOISTURE AND THUS
INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR NOW, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED LATER THIS MORNING AS RAIN BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER
NW AL. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ANY FOG AT BAY AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE BUSY MORNING COMMUTE HOURS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED DURING THE MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
TODAY, A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM CANADA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO PLACE THE SFC
LOW PLACED FARTHER NORTH, NOW CENTERED UP IN QUEBEC, BUT STILL HAS
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PIERCING THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW AL THIS MORNING AND
SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT AS MENTIONED IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND PRECIP
CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH ITS PASSAGE INTO THE EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE THE FREEZING TEMPS ARRIVE. IF THERE IS ANY OVERLAP, IT
WOULD BE A VERY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NW AL AND S MID TN. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY (GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH), BUT PICK UP
OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-25 MPH. THIS WILL HELP DRY
OUTDOOR SURFACES, HOWEVER STILL USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING IN CASE
THERE ARE ANY SPOTS THAT BECOME SLICK. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 20
DEGREES, BUT THE WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT'S MORE IN
THE TEENS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
STARTING OFF ON A BITTERLY COLD NOTE THURSDAY WITH TEMPS AROUND
20 DEGREES, BUT WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. ENSURE THAT YOU DRESS IN
LAYERS TO STAY WARM, AND CHECK ON OTHERS, INCLUDING OUTDOOR PETS.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FINALLY SLACK IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE DRIER AIR
THAT ALSO FILTERED IN BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. THE SUNSHINE WON'T
OVERRIDE THE CAA, AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
30S. YEP, YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY, THE 30S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S BUT WITH BREEZY WINDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT, IT WILL ONCE AGAIN
FEEL LIKE IT IS IN THE TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE SFC LOW WILL
BE UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
DRAPE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND ALONG THE MS VALLEY. THE INCREASE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RETURN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY THAT WILL HELP
PUSH HIGHS TOWARDS 50 DEGREES. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE
WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF
RAIN FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT FREEZING TEMPS CATCH UP WITH THE PRECIP
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA, PROVIDING A BRIEF WINDOW OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX, NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF A CONUS-WIDE UPPER TROUGH,
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ONE
THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FEATURE, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY;
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S, BUT WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE THEY ARE IN THE 30S.
IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES! HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COLD AS
WELL, NOT WARMING PAST THE 30S. ALTHOUGH HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 40S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LOWS AT NIGHT WILL STILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20S AND EVEN DIPPING INTO THE TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINTER ISN'T OVER YET FOLKS, SO MAKE SURE TO PREPARE FOR THIS COLD
WEATHER BY MAKING SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF HEADING OUTDOORS. PROTECT THE
FOUR PS: PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING AS GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL VEER TO THE NE/N AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE
MID TO LATE MORNING WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS BEING A RISK DUE TO LOW
CLOUD BASES IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR SKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AROUND 40KS AT 2KFT ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY 23RD AND 24TH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
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