982
FXUS64 KHUN 141609
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1009 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN TODAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR
ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
- MONITORING FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF WINDOW OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
- PERIODIC ROUNDS OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
UPON SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE TN VALLEY FOUND ITSELF UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE CLOUD
COVER TRULY DID WORK AS A BLANKET OVERNIGHT TRAPPING WARMER TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 40S. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SSW SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO CONTINUE INTO
THE TN VALLEY SUPPORTING OUR MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY. RAIN HAS ALREADY INFILTRATED NW AL AND WILL CONTINUE ON
ITS MARCH SE AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES. WITHOUT ANY
INSTABILITY, NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN LOOKS TO SEND FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING. THE REMAINING
FORECAST QUESTION IS IF WE WILL SEE ANY SNOWFLAKES AT ALL ON THE
BACK END OF THIS RAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS THE DRY AIR,
SPECIFICALLY DRY AIR ALOFT, WILL ARRIVE MUCH BEFORE THE COLUMN
COOLS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SNOW. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED AN ALL
RAIN FORECAST. WHILE UNLIKELY, A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN WITH RAIN
IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING. IF ANY FLAKES ARE OBSERVED,
REST ASSURED NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT, DRY AIR
WILL FILTER IN QUICKLY AS WINDS PICK UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT. CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S. WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH, WIND CHILLS WILL BE BITTERLY COLD IN THE
LOW 10S TO SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR TERRAIN AREAS. THE ONLY GOOD THING
ABOUT THE WIND IS IT WILL EFFECTIVELY DRY OUT OUR ROADS
ELIMINATING THE THREAT FOR ANY ICE TO FORM FROM LINGERING WET
ROADS FROM DAYTIME RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
OUR PLUNGE INTO COLD TEMPS WILL BE SWIFT, YET BRIEF. COLD
CONTINENTAL AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
DAY LEAVING US WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING 30 DESPITE CLEAR SKIES.
FORTUNATELY, HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST
AIR OUT OF OUR AREA. IN REPLACEMENT, WE WILL ENTER A BRIEF RETURN
FLOW PATTERN FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS SSW FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RETURN FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY MAKING IT INTO THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S.
UNFORTUNATELY OUR COLD WEATHER RELIEF WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO PIERCE THE AREA FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE OFFERS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IF WE COULD SEE ANY WINTER
PRECIP ON THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY
GENERATE LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 15-30% FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN THE QUESTION WILL BE IF THE DRY
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT OUT PACES THE COLD AIR. WITHOUT HIRES MODEL
COVERAGE GOING OUT THIS FAR, THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT DO REACH SATURDAY MORNING ON IF WE
COULD SEE ANY FLAKES OF SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE. WHAT IS IN MODEL
AGREEMENT IS THE INSIGNIFICANT OF ANY SNOW THAT WE DO SEE. EVEN IF
THERE IS A BRIEF CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW, NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST. DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WORKING TO DRY ANY WET SURFACE
ELIMINATING THE THREAT FOR ICE. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW 40S
AS WE AGAIN PLUNGE INTO A COOL AND DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF A CONUS-WIDE UPPER TROUGH,
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ONE
THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FEATURE, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY;
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S, BUT WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE THEY ARE IN THE 30S.
IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES! HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COLD AS
WELL, NOT WARMING PAST THE 30S. ALTHOUGH HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 40S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LOWS AT NIGHT WILL STILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20S AND EVEN DIPPING INTO THE TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINTER ISN'T OVER YET FOLKS, SO MAKE SURE TO PREPARE FOR THIS COLD
WEATHER BY MAKING SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF HEADING OUTDOORS. PROTECT THE
FOUR PS: PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THAT WILL
SOON CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA. FIRST, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SOUTHWEST
WIND SHEAR AROUND 40KTS AT 2KFT AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER
TO THE NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS. CIGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY 23RD AND 24TH. THEREFORE, THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
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