676
FXUS64 KHUN 142305
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
505 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN TODAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER AIR
ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
- MONITORING FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF WINDOW OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
- PERIODIC ROUNDS OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SUBTLE
CLEARING CAN ALREADY BEE SEEN IN WESTERN TN. THIS WILL SLOWLY WORK
ITS WAY EAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING.
WITH DRY AIR ON OUR DOORSTEPS, AS SHOWN BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND SATELLITE, THIS REDUCES OUR CHANCES EVEN MORE OF SEEING ANY
SNOW FLAKES ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM. DRY AIR WILL ALMOST
DEFINITELY ARRIVE BEFORE THE PROFILE DROPS BELOW FREEZING. AS
SUCH, RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE HELP OF GUSTY NW
WINDS. THIS WILL INFLICT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CAA OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S. WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 MPH STILL IN THE FORECAST, MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TEENS TO POTENTIALLY SINGLE DIGITS IN OUT TERRAIN
AREAS. WHILE THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, IT WILL STILL BE IMPORTANT TO DRESS APPROPRIATELY WHEN
LEAVING THE HOUSE TOMORROW. THIS INCLUDE A WARM WINTER COAT, HAT,
AND GLOVES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
OUR PLUNGE INTO COLD TEMPS WILL BE SWIFT, YET BRIEF. COLD
CONTINENTAL AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
DAY LEAVING US WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING 30 DESPITE CLEAR SKIES.
FORTUNATELY, HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO PROGRESS
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK USHERING THE COLDEST AND DRIEST
AIR OUT OF OUR AREA. IN REPLACEMENT, WE WILL ENTER A BRIEF RETURN
FLOW PATTERN FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS SSW FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE RETURN FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND
SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY MAKING IT INTO THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S.
UNFORTUNATELY OUR COLD WEATHER RELIEF WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO PIERCE THE AREA FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE OFFERS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IF WE COULD SEE ANY WINTER
PRECIP ON THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY
GENERATE LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 15-30% FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN THE QUESTION WILL BE IF THE DRY
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT OUT PACES THE COLD AIR. WITHOUT HIRES MODEL
COVERAGE GOING OUT THIS FAR, THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT DO REACH SATURDAY MORNING ON IF WE
COULD SEE ANY FLAKES OF SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE. WHAT IS IN MODEL
AGREEMENT IS THE INSIGNIFICANT OF ANY SNOW THAT WE DO SEE. EVEN IF
THERE IS A BRIEF CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW, NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST. DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TAKE OVER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WORKING TO DRY ANY WET SURFACE
ELIMINATING THE THREAT FOR ICE. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW 40S
AS WE AGAIN PLUNGE INTO A COOL AND DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF A CONUS-WIDE UPPER TROUGH,
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG IT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN ONE
THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FEATURE, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY;
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE COLD DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S, BUT WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE THEY ARE IN THE 30S.
IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES! HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COLD AS
WELL, NOT WARMING PAST THE 30S. ALTHOUGH HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 40S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LOWS AT NIGHT WILL STILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20S AND EVEN DIPPING INTO THE TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINTER ISN'T OVER YET FOLKS, SO MAKE SURE TO PREPARE FOR THIS COLD
WEATHER BY MAKING SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF HEADING OUTDOORS. PROTECT THE
FOUR PS: PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL THEREFORE ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS (MSL LIFTING BEFORE HSV).
CLOUDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
CLEAR SKIES AT MSL BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND AT HSV BY LATE
MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE PERSISTENT, BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS ARE THEREFORE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE
AL). WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE BIT ON THURSDAY,
BUT HOVER AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 10-18 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY 23RD AND 24TH. THEREFORE, THERE
IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED 1.4-1.8 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26
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