783
FXUS64 KHUN 150555
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1155 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- A FEW FLURRIES MAY FALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LATE THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT, BUT NO IMPACTS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
- MONITORING FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR A LOW CHANCE
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A BRIEF WINDOW. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
- PERIODIC ROUNDS OF MUCH COLDER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ROLLED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS
EVENING, AND SOME SPOTS EVEN REPORTED INSTANCES OF SLEET/ICE
PELLETS! MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AS OF THIS WRITING
SINCE THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED TO OUR SOUTHEAST; HOWEVER, SOME
LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGIN TO DROP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT, WITH LOW 30S ALREADY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LOWS ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO FURTHER PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER
TEENS (OVER NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN). THUS, WITH COLD AIR
QUICKLY PUSHING INTO THE VALLEY, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH ANY FLURRIES (SHOULD THEY OCCUR). EVEN SO, IT WILL BE COLD!
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE COLD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 AND
GENERALLY BETWEEN 8-13 DEGREES EAST OF I-65. MAKE SURE TO PREPARE
FOR THIS INFLUX OF COLD WEATHER BY PROTECTING PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES,
AND PLANTS!
FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT A DRY BUT BREEZY DAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BY THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES (30S) DUE TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COLDER STILL. THEREFORE, MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP THURSDAY!
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN AND BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS
WELL. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED CHANCES (MEDIUM; 30-50%) COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE VALLEY QUICKLY AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION IS
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER, WE'LL BE WATCHING HOW
FAST THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH, SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP ONCE AGAIN BEHIND IT AND SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LIKE SEWANEE THAT MIGHT SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. AGAIN,
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND IF
PRECIPITATION IS STILL ONGOING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW
30S EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
FROM ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OR BLACK ICE ON THE ROADS ARE
ANTICIPATED, SINCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE 40S ON SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOWS SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD (MID TEENS TO LOWER
20S), WESTERLY WINDS HOVERING AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH
ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DRY OUT ANY LINGERING WATER FROM
PRECIPITATION ON ROADS. THE MAIN CONCERN THEN WILL BE THE BITTER
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT. WINTER ISN'T OVER AND IT'S IMPORTANT TO BE
PREPARED AND REMEMBER WINTER SAFETY. MAKE SURE TO DRESS
APPROPRIATELY FOR THE COLD AND IF YOU PLAN TO USE SPACE HEATERS TO
KEEP WARM, PLUG THEM INTO A WALL OUTLET, KEEP A CLEAR PERIMETER
AROUND IT (3 FEET), AND NEVER KEEP THEM ON WHILE SLEEPING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
ON SUNDAY WE WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLD. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS,
NOW IN THE LOWER 30S, SIGNALING JUST HOW STRONG THE CAA BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE. WINDS WILL SLACK SUNDAY EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ABOVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS.
NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE STUCK IN THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT
WILL EXTEND TO COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. A SFC LOW UP IN THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL BE ABLE TO "WARM UP" INTO THE LOWER
40S, WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER IT WILL PROVIDE
A REINFORCING BOUT OF COLD AIR AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS ONCE
AGAIN AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. THE
TROUGH WILL START TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND THAT'S WHEN
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A LOW CHANCE (20-30%)
OF SHOWERS RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS AS NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE. WINDS
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY 23RD AND 24TH. THEREFORE, THERE
IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED 1.4-1.8 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25
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