240
FXUS64 KHUN 151652
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1052 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- MONITORING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW OR SLEET MIXING IN WITH
RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, NO
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL.
- COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
COLD ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTS IN MIDDLE TN INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AL, ALTHOUGH IT IS THINNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE SLOW TO RISE WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING AT 15-20KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS,
WITH WIND CHILLS STILL IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE NOW OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY THROUGH TX SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
TN VALLEY TODAY, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE GREATLY. DESPITE SUNSHINE,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUBFREEZING ATOP THE HIGHER CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AREAS TODAY, WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S AT BEST IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT. AT 850 MB, A
TROUGH AXIS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO TX. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS AR INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
THE 5H TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN
CORN BELT THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU ON FRIDAY, WITH THE 8H AND
SURFACE TROUGH AXES SHIFTING INTO KY/TN/MS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON, CLIPPING NORTHWEST AL AS WELL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL PROFILE WHICH
INDUCES WET BULB COOLING. THE QUESTION IS WILL THIS BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SLEET OR SNOW PELLETS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST WILL
INCLUDE SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY. THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE OH VALLEY THROUGH TX WHERE A
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO PIVOT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH TX
WITH A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO NORTH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH. BUT NOT BY MUCH IN A NUMBER OF CASES AND A FEW CASES
CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THUS, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH RUN
TO RUN TRENDS CLOSELY AS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES COULD RECEIVE
SNOWFALL IF TRENDS MOVE JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
ON SUNDAY WE WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AND THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLD. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS,
NOW IN THE LOWER 30S, SIGNALING JUST HOW STRONG THE CAA BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE. WINDS WILL SLACK SUNDAY EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ABOVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS.
NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE STUCK IN THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT
WILL EXTEND TO COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. A SFC LOW UP IN THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL BE ABLE TO "WARM UP" INTO THE LOWER
40S, WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER IT WILL PROVIDE
A REINFORCING BOUT OF COLD AIR AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS ONCE
AGAIN AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. THE
TROUGH WILL START TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND THAT'S WHEN
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A LOW CHANCE (20-30%)
OF SHOWERS RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
NORTH FLOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AFTER 13Z WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY 23RD AND 24TH. THEREFORE, THERE
IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED 1.4-1.8 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...17
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