983
FXUS64 KHUN 160434
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1034 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- MONITORING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW OR SLEET MIXING IN WITH
RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, NO
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL.
- COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, A DRY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THE MAIN STORY
TONIGHT WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT TOO MUCH COLDER
BECAUSE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION VERY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. EVEN SO, PLEASE DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR THE COLD
TEMPERATURES IF YOU VENTURE OUTSIDE. BRING IN YOUR OUTSIDE PETS
(IF YOU'RE COLD, THEY'RE COLD TOO!) AND REMEMBER SPACE HEATER
SAFETY IF YOU PLAN TO USE ANY TO KEEP WARM. PLUG THEM INTO A WALL
OUTLET, KEEP A CLEAR PERIMETER AROUND IT (3 FEET), AND NEVER KEEP
THEM ON WHILE SLEEPING.
FOR FRIDAY, MUCH OF THE DAY WILL WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES (15-20%) JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO FAR
NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL BE
BREEZY DURING THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15
MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL
COME FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WHICH IS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A LINE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO
50-80% DURING THIS TIME. THE LATEST RUN OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION AS
RAIN. HOWEVER, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS, SINCE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL INCREASE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION (SLEET/SNOW) FALLING FOR SOME
LOCATIONS, SIMILAR TO WHAT SOME AREAS SAW THE OTHER DAY.
REGARDLESS, NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO THEN DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER TIME FRAME OF NOTE IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A GULF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
STATES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW AND THEREFORE, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON
WHETHER WE'LL BE AFFECTED BY ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION. IF THE LOW
REMAINS FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH, WE'LL SEE LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, A MORE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY COULD RESULT
IN AT LEAST OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (CULLMAN UP INTO NE AL)
POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AS THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT MENTIONED, MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOW ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. OUR CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS LINE OF THINKING, WITH VERY LOW TO NO PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION. THUS, NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, MAKE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND KEEP UP
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS THINGS CAN CHANGE.
LASTLY, IT WILL BE CHILLY, ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET
INTO THE TEENS TO 20S, WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S ON
SUNDAY. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF YOU HEAD OUTSIDE AND PROTECT
PETS, PIPES AND PLANTS!
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE STUCK IN THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. A SFC LOW UP IN THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL BE ABLE TO "WARM UP" INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S, WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ON MONDAY, HOWEVER IT WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING BOUT OF COLD AIR AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS ONCE AGAIN AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE 30S.
THE TROUGH WILL START TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 15KTS
PROVIDING WAA AND SOME MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 40S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LATER BRING RAINFALL
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CHANCES (20-30%) WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SFC LOW STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN TX AND INTO THE GULF. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ON WED NIGHT TO SEE IF THIS WOULD GIVE
US ANY WINTRY PRECIP BUT TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND
WILL REACH THE LOWER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
~13-15Z AT 2KFT AROUND 40KTS. CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF APPROACHING RAINFALL WHICH SHOULD
GET INTO KMSL RIGHT BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF AND AT KHSV RIGHT
AFTERWARDS. WHEN RAINFALL DOES ARRIVE, IT WILL BRING CONDITIONS
INTO MVFR.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY 23RD AND 24TH. THEREFORE, THERE
IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED 1.4-1.8 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...JMS
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