630
FXUS64 KHUN 161158
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
558 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 403 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- MONITORING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW OR SLEET MIXING IN WITH
RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, NO
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL.
- COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 16 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. FURTHER WEST, WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM SE IOWA
THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S
IN PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA. ADDITIONALLY, SOME CLOUD COVER AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS HELPING KEEPING AREAS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
WARMER AS WELL. IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. HOWEVER,
EVEN THERE TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CLIMB TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION FORM THE SOUTH KICKS IN THERE. THUS, LOWS LOOK
ABOUT ON TRACK BUT YOU MAY WAKE UP TO A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
AL/GA BORDER AROUND 6 AM THAT COULD STILL BE IN THE THE 15 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE BEFORE WARMING UP QUICKLY AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK.
PLEASE DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR THE COLD TEMPERATURES IF YOU
VENTURE OUTSIDE TOWARDS DAYBREAK TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN NE ALABAMA.
FOR FRIDAY, AFTER SOME INITIAL CLOUD COVER PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, MUCH OF THE DAY WILL WILL BE DRY
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AGAIN AS RAIN CHANCES
(15-20%) JUST BEGIN TO MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND
20-30 MPH. THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WHICH IS DISCUSSED BELOW.
SOME MODELS HINT WE MAY BE ABLE TO MIX UP TO AROUND 40 TO 45
KNOTS OF WIND ALOFT IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY
ALLOW WINDS TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT THAT IN THE
FORECAST RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO INCREASE
WINDS AND CONTEMPLATE A WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER, FOR NOW DUE TO THE
NARROW WINDOW FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO BE MET IN THE AFTERNOON,
HOLDING OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, A LINE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO
50-80% DURING THIS TIME. THE LATEST RUN OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, KEEPING ALL PRECIPITATION AS
RAIN. HOWEVER, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS, SINCE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL INCREASE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION (SLEET/SNOW) FALLING FOR SOME
LOCATIONS, SIMILAR TO WHAT SOME AREAS SAW THE OTHER DAY.
REGARDLESS, NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO THEN DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER TIME FRAME OF NOTE IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A GULF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES UP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
STATES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW AND THEREFORE, THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON
WHETHER WE'LL BE AFFECTED BY ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION. IF THE LOW
REMAINS FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH, WE'LL SEE LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, A MORE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY COULD RESULT
IN AT LEAST OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (CULLMAN UP INTO NE AL)
POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AS THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT MENTIONED, MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES SHOW ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. OUR CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS LINE OF THINKING, WITH VERY LOW TO NO PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION. THUS, NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, MAKE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND KEEP UP
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS THINGS CAN CHANGE.
LASTLY, IT WILL BE CHILLY, ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET
INTO THE TEENS TO 20S, WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S ON
SUNDAY. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF YOU HEAD OUTSIDE AND PROTECT
PETS, PIPES AND PLANTS!
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE STUCK IN THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. A SFC LOW UP IN THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL BE ABLE TO "WARM UP" INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S, WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ON MONDAY, HOWEVER IT WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING BOUT OF COLD AIR AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS ONCE AGAIN AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE 30S.
THE TROUGH WILL START TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 15KTS
PROVIDING WAA AND SOME MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 40S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LATER BRING RAINFALL
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CHANCES (20-30%) WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SFC LOW STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN TX AND INTO THE GULF. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ON WED NIGHT TO SEE IF THIS WOULD GIVE
US ANY WINTRY PRECIP BUT TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND
WILL REACH THE LOWER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH, THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN ROUGHLY 13-15Z WHERE
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MSL TERMINAL (SOUTHWEST AT 40
KNOTS). BY THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE (50-80%) FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF SITES. LASTLY, THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL SMALL
WINDOW BETWEEN 0-3Z WHERE LLWS MAY AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS
(SOUTHWEST AT 35-40 KNOTS).
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY 23RD AND 24TH. THEREFORE, THERE
IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED 1.4-1.8 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...KTW
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