587
FXUS64 KHUN 161959
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
159 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- MONITORING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW OR SLEET MIXING IN WITH
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY.
THE INCREASE IN RAIN AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT CAN BE SEEN ENTERING NW TN. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, RAIN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MUCH
LATER THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS
OF SLEET/SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAIN DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS
EVENING. LIKEWISE, A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF SNOW MIXED IN WITH
RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT EXITS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
NE AL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IF ANY SNOW IS OBSERVED, MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN NW AL DURING THE MID AFTERNOON WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%) SPREADING SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW MUCH DRY AIR REMAINS
IN THE PROFILE THROUGH THE EVENT, AND IF ADDITIONAL DRY AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT ARRIVES BEFORE THE EXODUS OF PRECIP FROM THE AREA. THE
PRESENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE PROFILE WILL INCREASE
OUR CHANCES OF SEEING WINTRY PRECIP (SLEET OR SNOW) MIX IN WITH
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT THROUGH THE PROCESS OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
IF A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR DOES LINGER THIS EVENING, IT IS
LIKELY WE WOULD SEE SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. REST ASSURED HOWEVER THAT NO ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED FROM
ANY EVAPORATIVE COOLING WINTER PRECIP THIS EVENING. WE WILL ALSO
NEED TO MONITOR WINTER PRECIP CHANCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SHOULD COOL/DRY AIR ARRIVE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS, THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (~30% PER NBM 5.0) OF SEEING SNOW IN OUR NE TERRAIN
AREAS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTH EAST AL. WHILE MODELS WIDELY
DIFFER IN THEIR PRECIP SOLUTIONS, THEY ALL KEEP ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT LOOKS TO END EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE SHORT TERM WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE HERE TO STAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOL DRY AIR WILL IMMEDIATELY BEGIN
TO USHER IN AS WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BACK TO THE NW. HIGH
PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN CONTINENTAL NW CANADA WILL SURGE DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS AND SNEAK INTO THE TN VALLEY COME SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLD, DRY AIR WILL SUFFICIENTLY BLOCK
ALL PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY INTO THE SUNDAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH
KEEPING ANY THREAT OF RAIN OR SNOW CONFINED SOUTH OF I-20.
UNFORTUNATELY THE DRY FORECAST MEANS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. THE FULL EFFECT
OF CAA WON'T BE FELT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT, AS SUCH HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID 40S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE LOW 20S OVERNIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND TO THE MID 30S
FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN DROP LOWS INTO THE
MID 20S MAKING MONDAY MORNING A PERFECT HOLIDAY MORNING TO SLEEP
IN BEFORE HIGHS REBOUND TO THE LOW 40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE STUCK IN THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH THAT
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. A SFC LOW UP IN THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL BE ABLE TO "WARM UP" INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S, WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ON MONDAY, HOWEVER IT WILL
PROVIDE A REINFORCING BOUT OF COLD AIR AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS ONCE AGAIN AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE STUCK IN THE 30S.
THE TROUGH WILL START TO SLIDE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH WINDS GUSTING TOWARDS 15KTS
PROVIDING WAA AND SOME MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 40S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LATER BRING RAINFALL
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CHANCES (20-30%) WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SFC LOW STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN TX AND INTO THE GULF. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS ON WED NIGHT TO SEE IF THIS WOULD GIVE
US ANY WINTRY PRECIP BUT TEMPS WILL RISE QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND
WILL REACH THE LOWER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE PRESENT WITH GUSTS UP TO 22KTS. AFTER 0Z
RAIN WILL ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST DROPPING CEILINGS INTO MVFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 9Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING BY 12Z AND STAYING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NORTH ALABAMA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY 23RD AND 24TH. THEREFORE, THERE
IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED 1.4-1.8 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE INFORMATION ON THE CPC U.S. HAZARDS OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTPS://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RAD
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