874
FXUS64 KHUN 170344
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
944 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 944 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- MONITORING THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW OR SLEET MIXING IN WITH
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME, NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, A 70
KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, HIGH RAIN
CHANCES (70-90%) PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COUPLED
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20-30 MPH AT TIMES. AS TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURRING PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST. CAA SWEEPS IN
SATURDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN QUICKLY DRYING CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS THE BEGINNING OF A COOLING TREND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COOLING
TREND THAT RESULTS IN BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP EVEN LOWER- DIPPING INTO
THE TEENS. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 30S/40S.
WHILE ALL EYES ARE ON THE GULF SYSTEM, THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR DUE
TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVENT THE TN VALLEY FROM RECEIVING
ANY PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMPRISE THE LONG
TERM THROUGH MIDWEEK, LEADING TO DRY WEATHER (NO RAIN). BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN TO MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT SLATED TO APPROACH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING
AND HOW AMPLIFIED THE SHORTWAVES BECOME ALOFT. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES, ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING, THE BLEND HAS PAINTED ALL OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(20-45%) OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES
THEN DWINDLE INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS SHOWN BY
GUIDANCE AS WELL, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE RAIN CLEARS AND TEMPERATURES DROP THURSDAY
NIGHT, SOME AREAS OVER FAR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. DETAILS REGARDING FORECAST
RAINFALL, WINTER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
(IF ANY) WILL BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER.
FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE
WEEK. HIGHS START OUT IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY THEN WARM INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING PATTERN, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S (WITH SOME TEENS OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA)
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH, LOWS MAY COOL BACK INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR LOCAL
AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 18-25 KNOTS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A
LINE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING LOWERED VIS
IN THE HEAVIER RAIN AS WELL AS LOW CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR (PERHAPS
INSTANCES OF IFR, ESPECIALLY AT HSV). THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
LLWS (FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS) AT HSV FROM 0Z UNTIL
4Z. ONCE THE LINE OF RAIN MOVES TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LASTLY, LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-18
KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26
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