328
FXUS64 KHUN 171221
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 400 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- MONITORING THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SLEET AHEAD OF A SECONDARY DRIER COLD FRONT AROUND
DAYBREAK TODAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
MOST CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT
BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.6 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO MOST OF NORTHERN AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS GIVEN WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. WITH
LIGHT OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE BEHIND THIS FRONT, PATCHY FOG, SOME
LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS HAS DEVELOPED. PLEASE ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO
DRIVE TO YOUR DESTINATION IF TRAVELING BEFORE DAYBREAK TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS.
EXPECT THIS FOG TO BE AT ITS THICKEST AND MOST PREVALENT STATE
BETWEEN NOW AND 6 AM.
LUCKILY, A SECOND STRONG BUT VERY DRY COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY
PUSHING SOUTHEAST RIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WILL ADVECT MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AROUND 6 AM. THIS SHOULD ERODE AND
DISSIPATE THE FOG CURRENTLY IN PLACE. AT THIS POINT, THE FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN SO QUICKLY. HOWEVER, BETWEEN NOW AND
6 AM, SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED THIS MORNING INTO THE AREA.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES, BUT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW
LEVELS IN MODEL DATA IS SO STRONG, THINK MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE. IT WILL BE COLDER VIA STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MORNING CLOUD COVER TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE
HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WITH WESTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN AND 10 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
MPH, IT WILL FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES DON'T CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. SO BUNDLE UP A BIT IF OUT AND ABOUT TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A COOLING
TREND THAT RESULTS IN BELOW FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS ON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP EVEN LOWER- DIPPING INTO
THE TEENS. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 30S/40S.
WHILE ALL EYES ARE ON THE GULF SYSTEM, THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR DUE
TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVENT THE TN VALLEY FROM RECEIVING
ANY PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMPRISE THE LONG
TERM THROUGH MIDWEEK, LEADING TO DRY WEATHER (NO RAIN). BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN TO MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT SLATED TO APPROACH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING
AND HOW AMPLIFIED THE SHORTWAVES BECOME ALOFT. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES, ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING, THE BLEND HAS PAINTED ALL OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(20-45%) OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES
THEN DWINDLE INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS SHOWN BY
GUIDANCE AS WELL, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE RAIN CLEARS AND TEMPERATURES DROP THURSDAY
NIGHT, SOME AREAS OVER FAR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. DETAILS REGARDING FORECAST
RAINFALL, WINTER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
(IF ANY) WILL BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER.
FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE
WEEK. HIGHS START OUT IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY THEN WARM INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING PATTERN, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S (WITH SOME TEENS OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA)
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH, LOWS MAY COOL BACK INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR LOCAL
AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z
AS LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 1/4SM TO 1/2SM FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST
(ALONG WITH SUB 100 FT CEILINGS). GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND
THEN MVFR BY 15-16Z WHEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS CLOUD
COVER/FOG DISSIPATES. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM THE WNW/NW, BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER
SUNSET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ096.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP.24
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