149
FXUS64 KHUN 171552
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
952 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 951 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- A COLD/DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHS RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING IS FINALLY DISSIPATING (PER SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS) AND WE WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM CST. A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY WILL
THEN BE ON TAP FOR THE AREA, BUT BREEZY WNW/NW WINDS WILL
REINFORCE THIS COOL AIR MASS. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL ONLY PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. AS WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOWER 20S -- WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE TEENS
OCCURRING ALONG THE PLATEAU. SOME PASSING CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING ANY FURTHER THAN THIS, HOWEVER.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND WE'LL DEFINITELY FEEL IT SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. DON'T
LET THE SUNSHINE AND CLEAR CONDITIONS FOOL YOU -- IT WILL BE
DOWNRIGHT COLD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ON MONDAY NIGHT! THIS COLD AIR WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING THESE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL/DRY AIR EACH DAY. SOME
GRADUAL RELIEF MAY BE IN STORE BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT EVOLVES. MORE ON THIS IN THE SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMPRISE THE LONG
TERM THROUGH MIDWEEK, LEADING TO DRY WEATHER (NO RAIN). BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN TO MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT SLATED TO APPROACH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING
AND HOW AMPLIFIED THE SHORTWAVES BECOME ALOFT. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES, ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING, THE BLEND HAS PAINTED ALL OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(20-45%) OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES
THEN DWINDLE INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS SHOWN BY
GUIDANCE AS WELL, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE RAIN CLEARS AND TEMPERATURES DROP THURSDAY
NIGHT, SOME AREAS OVER FAR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. DETAILS REGARDING FORECAST
RAINFALL, WINTER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
(IF ANY) WILL BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER.
FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE
WEEK. HIGHS START OUT IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY THEN WARM INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING PATTERN, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S (WITH SOME TEENS OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA)
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH, LOWS MAY COOL BACK INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR LOCAL
AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z
AS LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 1/4SM TO 1/2SM FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST
(ALONG WITH SUB 100 FT CEILINGS). GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND
THEN MVFR BY 15-16Z WHEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS CLOUD
COVER/FOG DISSIPATES. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM THE WNW/NW, BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER
SUNSET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-
016.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP
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