583
FXUS64 KHUN 172016
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
216 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 951 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- A COLD/DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHS RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
BROKEN DECKS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN THIS AFTERNOON,
STUNTING HEATING AND CAPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. BREEZY WNW/NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET. THUS, A CHILLY NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A COOL, DRY AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE PRESENT THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
GRADUALLY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE LOWER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING (WITH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE PLATEAU POTENTIALLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS).
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND WE'LL DEFINITELY FEEL IT SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. DON'T
LET THE SUNSHINE AND CLEAR CONDITIONS FOOL YOU -- IT WILL BE
DOWNRIGHT COLD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ON MONDAY NIGHT! THIS COLD AIR WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
SHORTWAVES PASSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING THESE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL/DRY AIR EACH DAY. SOME
GRADUAL RELIEF MAY BE IN STORE BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT EVOLVES. MORE ON THIS IN THE SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMPRISE THE LONG
TERM THROUGH MIDWEEK, LEADING TO DRY WEATHER (NO RAIN). BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE SHOWN TO MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT SLATED TO APPROACH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING
AND HOW AMPLIFIED THE SHORTWAVES BECOME ALOFT. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES, ESPECIALLY WITH TIMING, THE BLEND HAS PAINTED ALL OF
NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
(20-45%) OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES
THEN DWINDLE INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS SHOWN BY
GUIDANCE AS WELL, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE RAIN CLEARS AND TEMPERATURES DROP THURSDAY
NIGHT, SOME AREAS OVER FAR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. DETAILS REGARDING FORECAST
RAINFALL, WINTER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
(IF ANY) WILL BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER.
FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE
WEEK. HIGHS START OUT IN THE 30S ON TUESDAY THEN WARM INTO THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING PATTERN, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S (WITH SOME TEENS OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA)
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARMING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH, LOWS MAY COOL BACK INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR LOCAL
AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BREEZY WNW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...AMP
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