394
FXUS64 KHUN 180955
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
355 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 354 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- A COLD/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHS RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
SOME VIRGA AND HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ALABAMA, ESPECIALLY OVER CULLMAN NORTHEAST THROUGH
JACKSON COUNTIES. THIS CAN BE SEEN VERY WELL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS IS OCCURRING DUE TO VERY STRONG LIFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN NEAR AND BELOW 700 MB IS VERY DRY (AS MIRRORED
IN 10 TO 15 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS). NONE OF THIS VIRGA WILL END UP MAKING IT
NEAR THE GROUND DUE TO THIS VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW 700 MB. COLDER
AIR CAN BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH LINGERING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MORNING.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
TODAY. SO DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED, HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL COLDER. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB ABOVE
THE LOWER 30S, EVEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A LIGHT WSW FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT, WITHIN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTIES OF THE AIRMASS,
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE L-M 20S, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY BRIEFLY RECOVERING INTO THE U30S-L40S
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR LATER IN
THE DAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD
INTO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND SUBSIDING WINDS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT,
BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A DECENT COVERAGE OF
MID/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDINESS RELATED TO A PASSING SHEAR AXIS, WE
WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CO (THAT WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY
OF LAKE MI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD) WILL INDUCE LIGHT SSE RETURN
FLOW. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE U30S-L40S TUESDAY, WITH
A MINOR INCREASE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS (INTO THE L-M 20S) TUESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A PRONOUNCED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE INDUCING THE
FORMATION OF A SUBTLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TX AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS OCCURS, DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY, WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING IN THE
WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH CLOUDS, HIGHS SHOULD WARM
MODESTLY INTO THE 45-50F RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
(ALTHOUGH REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT) ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, AND COULD INITIALLY BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF
SNOW/SLEET (DUE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING) BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO COLD RAIN AND ENDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
FOR MINOR IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY AS
ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES EASTWARD, LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
STEADILY STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A SURGING ARCTIC FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND BENEATH A 40-50
KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A VAST AREA OF RAIN
(WHICH COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). FORTUNATELY, AT THIS POINT,
IT APPEARS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL END PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE REINFORCING ARCTIC AIRMASS LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION
FORECAST REASONING, AS AN APPROACHING UPPER-LVL TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODS OF BKN AS/CS AS WELL AS SOME VIRGA THRU THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT A NOTABLE CLEARING TREND TO BEGIN BY
10Z, WITH ONLY A FEW AC AND SOME CI EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT NNW WINDS AT THE SFC WILL CONTINUE THRU
SUNRISE. HOWEVER, AS A REMNANT ARCTIC HIGH DROPS FURTHER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TOMORROW, LOW-LVL FLOW WILL
BACK TO WSW AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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