674
FXUS64 KHUN 181542
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
942 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 354 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- A COLD/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHS RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
A COLD, DRY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. DON'T LET
THE SUNSHINE FOOL YOU THOUGH: IT'S GOING TO FEEL QUITE COLD
OUTDOORS! BREEZY NW WINDS WILL REINFORCE THIS COLD AIR MASS,
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (WITH WIND
CHILLS AT/BELOW THE FREEZING MARK). WINDS WON'T COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE TONIGHT WHICH MAY BE OUR ONE SAVING GRACE AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO. STILL IN THIS COLD/DRY AIR MASS WITH A CLEAR SKY
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAVORED EARLY THIS WEEK AS
A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE, BRINGING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE REGION BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30 TO LOWER
40S BOTH DAY (WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE SUN, THANKS TO BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE MONDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, AND
THAT WILL BE A BITTER COLD NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND AS A RESULT AND IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO
MAKE COLD WEATHER PREPARATIONS. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP AND DRESS
IN LAYERS IF YOU HEAD OUTDOORS, BRING PETS INDOORS AND INSULATE
PIPES. THE COLD WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 20S FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE THESE PREPAREDNESS
ACTIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT A PRONOUNCED MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE INDUCING THE
FORMATION OF A SUBTLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TX AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF. AS THIS OCCURS, DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY, WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING IN THE
WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH CLOUDS, HIGHS SHOULD WARM
MODESTLY INTO THE 45-50F RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
(ALTHOUGH REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT) ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, AND COULD INITIALLY BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF
SNOW/SLEET (DUE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING) BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO COLD RAIN AND ENDING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
FOR MINOR IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY AS
ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES EASTWARD, LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
STEADILY STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A SURGING ARCTIC FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND BENEATH A 40-50
KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A VAST AREA OF RAIN
(WHICH COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). FORTUNATELY, AT THIS POINT,
IT APPEARS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL END PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE REINFORCING ARCTIC AIRMASS LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 12 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT BOTH KMSL AND KHSV. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY THIS EVENING AROUND 5 KTS. WIND SHEAR MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 19/06Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KTW
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