117
FXUS64 KHUN 300601
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1201 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 930 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT 11 PM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NOON SUNDAY FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN
-5F AND 5F.
- WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED)
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
AN OVERALL TRANQUIL AND COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR. NO
PRECIP IS FORECAST WITH THIS WAVE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, BUT AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL NOT DROP
NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS FEW WITH FORECAST LOWS TOMORROW
MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER 40S, WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE WARM COMPARED TO WHAT IS TO
COME THIS WEEKEND (MORE ON THAT IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION).
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE YEAR ARRIVES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY, A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
GA/SC COAST. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM, LATEST CAMS ARE
SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN AND NORTHEAST AL. MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS WOULD BE A DUSTING TO
AROUND A TENTH OF INCH OF SNOW. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS QUITE LOW AS THE MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER
SNOW SHOULD FALL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
THE GREATER CONCERN LOCALLY WILL BE THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM THE SFC LOW AND
THE ARCTIC HIGH THAT BEGINS TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
NORTHEAST AL. AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET OVERNIGHT INTO THE TEENS,
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP AS LOW AS -5F BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
STRONG CAA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURE FROM CLIMBING ABOVE THE LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 10S WITH WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN JUST BELOW ZERO. THEREFORE
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA
STARTING 11 PM FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IF YOU NEED TO GO OUTSIDE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PLEASE
REMEMBER TO WEAR MULTIPLE LAYERS AND COVER UP ANY EXPOSED SKIN TO
PREVENT FROSTBITE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX BY SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST REDUCING THE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ON THE COLDER SIDE, BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS SATURDAY. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE SUNDAY WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE
BRIEF, SINCE A RATHER LARGE, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AND SWING OVER THE REGION FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE
PUSHED EASTWARD BY A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLATED TO
TRAVERSE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL THEN DIP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
FLORIDA BY THURSDAY. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
NEXT WEEK? DRY WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY OUR
NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION (30-60%) TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN (VERSUS A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW). HIGHS
ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON TUESDAY AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, FORECAST LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED WARMER, WITH VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING;
HOWEVER, HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION ENDS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH, AS LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (10-25%) OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ACCORDING TO MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS, BUT LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP 17/18Z TOMORROW WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS,
AND MVFR CIGS WILL FILTER IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BOTH CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
ALZ001>010-016.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...JMS
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