950
FXUS64 KHUN 301739
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1139 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
SUNDAY FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5F AND 5F.
- WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED)
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME FLURRIES, BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ESE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS RESPONSE TO SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS SOUTH OF UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MOST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES THIS TREND WITH THAT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
CLOSER TO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, A WEAKER UPPER LOW THAT PUSHED
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD COVER, HAS
PUSHED ESE AND WILL APPROACH THE AL/GA BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THERE WILL BE OFF AN ON BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA. THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 45 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS SWINGS
QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AHEAD OF THIS
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER, NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE IS SEEN
WITH THIS FEATURE IN GUIDANCE NEAR THE CENTER OR ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH IT SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
VERY STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SOME FLURRIES OR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE UPPER
LOW. FURTHER EAST OF THE LOW, BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA SHOULD SEE FLURRIES PRIMARILY AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
HOWEVER, SOME AREAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR
FRANKLIN COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA COULD SEE A
TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF VERY LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW.
AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTHWARD, 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. ALOT OF THIS WIND ENERGY WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE GROUND PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL HELP TO PULL A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAYON SATURDAY AND PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOST FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD PUSH INTO GEORGIA BY 10 AM.
THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE BIG STORY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THE WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES TO BETWEEN -5 AND 5
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING, ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 25 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY BREEZY DURING THE DAY. DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS VALUES COULD IMPROVE IN SOME AREAS INTO THE
LOWER TEENS. HOWEVER, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP AGAIN QUICKLY
INTO THE -5 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO
THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. SUNDAY SHOULD START TO WARM UP JUST A
BIT, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER,
SOME LOCATIONS COULD GO ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT (LOWS 18-24 DEGREES),
BUT LITTLE WINDS IS EXPECTED, SO NO SIGNIFICANTLY DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM THE
ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF STATES STARTS TO MODIFY THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO HE MID TO UPPER 40S
ON MONDAY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY
TUESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THAT TIMEFRAME TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD DEVELOPING AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MUCH WETTER AND COULD BRING US SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
COLDER AIR SHOULD BE ADVECTED BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTED COLD FRONT DURING THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD DROP
BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AGAIN AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 20S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP MID DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20
KTS, AND GUST 25 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL FILTER IN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES WERE INCLUDED BETWEEN 4Z AND 13Z, BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...JMS
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