705
FXUS64 KHUN 302128
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON
SUNDAY FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5F AND 5F.
- WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED)
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME FLURRIES, BUT LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 45 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HOWEVER, BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, A COLD FRONT IS DEVELOPING
AND PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. THIS IS ALL
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW AT 500 MB THAT IS BEGINNING
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA.
AN AREA OF CONSISTENT RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN BUILDING SOUTHWEST
FROM THE NASHVILLE AREA. SO FAR THOUGH, NO REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW
OR VISIBLITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN SEEN IN AREA OBSERVATIONS
SOUTH AND WEST OF BEDFORD COUNTY IN TN. HOW MUCH THE PRECIPITATION
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT CAN REDUCE THE DEWPOINTS
DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY LARGELY DETERMINE IF ANY OF THOSE RADAR
RETURNS END UP REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
THIS EVENING. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT, THE MUCH DRIER AIR (SEEN JUST
WEST OF THESE RADAR RETURNS (DEWPIONTS FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES) WILL
ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION ALOFT, MAKING
IT HARD FOR ANY TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL THE ACTUAL UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT (10 PM TONIGHT TO 6 AM
SATURDAY).
IN ADDITION, THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PIVOTING MORE TO THE EAST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THUS, IT COULD PUSH MOST OF ANY
PRECPITATION REACHING THE GROUND EAST OF THE AREA PRIMARILY. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE PARTS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY, TN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF JACKSON OR DEKALB COUNTIES. IN THESE AREAS, THOUGH STILL LOW,
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A CHANCE OF A TRACE UP TO 0.5 INCHES IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT SNOW THAT LIKELY WILL BE BLOWN
QUICKLY OFF THE ROAD IF IT ACCUMULATES.
WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP LATER TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA. 850 MB WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40
MPH IN RESPONSE TO THE APPRAOCHING UPPER LOW. A GOOD DEAL OF THIS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS A RESULT
PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
THIS WILL HELP TO PULL A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES TO BETWEEN -5
AND 5 DEGREES. THUS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING,
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
25 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY BREEZY DURING THE DAY. DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS VALUES COULD IMPROVE IN SOME AREAS INTO THE
LOWER TEENS. HOWEVER, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP AGAIN QUICKLY
INTO THE -5 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO
THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. SUNDAY SHOULD START TO WARM UP JUST A
BIT, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HOWEVER,
SOME LOCATIONS COULD GO ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT (LOWS 18-24 DEGREES),
BUT LITTLE WINDS IS EXPECTED, SO NO SIGNIFICANTLY DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM THE
ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF STATES STARTS TO MODIFY THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO HE MID TO UPPER 40S
ON MONDAY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES BY
TUESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THAT TIMEFRAME TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD DEVELOPING AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MUCH WETTER AND COULD BRING US SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
COLDER AIR SHOULD BE ADVECTED BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTED COLD FRONT DURING THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD DROP
BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AGAIN AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 20S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP MID DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS 15-20
KTS, AND GUST 25 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL FILTER IN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES WERE INCLUDED BETWEEN 4Z AND 13Z, BUT SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...JMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page