017
FXUS64 KHUN 311140
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
540 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 254 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5F AND +5F (FOR THIS
MORNING AND LATER TONIGHT).
- SNOW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THIS MORNING, WITH MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- STRONG NNW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
CURRENTLY WATCHING SNOW FLURRIES OUT THE WINDOW, HOWEVER THEY WILL
NOT ACCUMULATE OR CREATE ANY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THIS MORNING.
SOME LOCATIONS IN FRANKLIN CO TN, EASTERN MADISON CO, AND JACKSON
CO SAW A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH AROUND 2AM. NORTHEAST AL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW THIS EVENING/NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL SMALL BANDS BRUSHING THROUGH, SO A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS
FEASIBLE. FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES.
THE MAIN HAZARD THAT NEEDS TO BE DISCUSSED IS THE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL THIS MORNING. AS A SFC LOW RIDES UP THE MID ATLANTIC, AN
ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE TN VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15
KTS SUSTAINED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH SOME GUSTING TO 15-20KTS
THIS MORNING. COMBINED WITH THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL
SEND WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -5 TO +5 DEGREES THIS MORNING. THE STRONG
CAA AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL CAP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S. AS WINDS
PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY, THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FEEL
MORE LIKE IT'S IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY TODAY.
YOU NEED TO ENSURE THAT YOU LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS AND DRESS IN
LAYERS TO STAY WARM. WE WILL BE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH IT IN A FEW SPOTS, HOWEVER THE GUSTY WINDS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT'S THE CULPRIT
TO THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
CURRENTLY WATCHING SNOW FLURRIES OUT THE WINDOW, HOWEVER THEY WILL
NOT ACCUMULATE OR CREATE ANY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THIS MORNING.
SOME LOCATIONS IN FRANKLIN CO TN, EASTERN MADISON CO, AND JACKSON
CO SAW A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
BAND THAT MOVED THROUGH AROUND 2AM. NORTHEAST AL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN HAVE SEEN THE MOST SNOW THIS EVENING/NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL SMALL BANDS BRUSHING THROUGH, SO A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS
FEASIBLE. FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES.
THE MAIN HAZARD THAT NEEDS TO BE DISCUSSED IS THE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL THIS MORNING. AS A SFC LOW RIDES UP THE MID ATLANTIC, AN
ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE TN VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15
KTS SUSTAINED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH SOME GUSTING TO 15-20KTS
THIS MORNING. COMBINED WITH THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL
SEND WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -5 TO +5 DEGREES THIS MORNING. THE STRONG
CAA AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL CAP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S. AS WINDS
PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY, THEY WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FEEL
MORE LIKE IT'S IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY TODAY.
YOU NEED TO ENSURE THAT YOU LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS AND DRESS IN
LAYERS TO STAY WARM. WE WILL BE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH IT IN A FEW SPOTS, HOWEVER THE GUSTY WINDS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT'S THE CULPRIT
TO THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF SNOW FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA). FORTUNATELY, THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE SOME INSULATION AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 10-15F RANGE, BUT EVEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
RELAX IT APPEARS AS IF THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MIXING
TO MAINTAIN WINDS AROUND 10 MPH (WITH EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE -5 TO +5F RANGE ONCE AGAIN).
LOW STRATUS WILL FINALLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS, THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD
OF INSOLATION TO SUPPORT TEMPS WARMING INTO THE L-M 30S AS WINDS
DIMINISH. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MONDAY, CLOUD LAYERS ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/LOWER, AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
TIMEFRAME FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW FLURRIES. HOWEVER, THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS AS IF IT WILL REMAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM ON MONDAY, WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE ONSET OF
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUPPORTING HIGHS OF 45-50F. RETURN FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH LOWS WARMING
INTO THE U20S-L30S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WARMING TREND (IN PROGRESS AT THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD) WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, AS A
DECAYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH
REGION. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN THAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, ONLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM NW-TO-
SE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A COOLER/DRIER
CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION. THIS AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN INTACT FROM WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
SLOWLY MODIFYING HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE WESTERN GULF, WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE L-M 40S AND
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE L-M 20S. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
INTO THE U40S-L50S ON FRIDAY DUE TO A MODEST INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
ON AND OFF FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AND SO WILL THE GUSTY NNW WINDS. SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO ~25KTS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY LOWER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR KMSL, BUT NOT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR KHSV.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...JMS
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