355
FXUS64 KHUN 311650
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1050 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5F AND +5F (FOR THIS
MORNING AND LATER TONIGHT).
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: - IN TN: FRANKLIN - IN AL: JACKSON, DEKALB, MARSHALL
THROUGH NOON TODAY. BETWEEN 0.5 AND 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- STRONG NNW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH (WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MODELS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING.
HEAVIER BANDS HAVE BEEN TRAINING BEFORE DAYBREAK OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY (TN) SOUTHWARD INTO JACKSON AND DEKALB
COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS HAS LEAD TO A BAND OF
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAS PRODUCED 0.5
TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHERN
DEKALB COUNTIES IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS PISGAH, HIGDON, FLAT ROCK,
BRYANT. A WINTER STORM ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THAT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH NOON FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY (TN), JACKSON COUNTY (AL),
MARSHALL COUNTY (AL), AND DEKALB COUNTY (AL).
A SECONDARY AREA OF FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW PRIMARILY HAS
REDEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS MAINLY MODERATE (AT TIMES
HEAVIER) SNOWFALL BAND OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS AND THE CORE OF
THAT AREA IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. HOW LONG THIS SNOWFALL WILL LAST
IS THE QUESTION OF THE DAY.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA UNTIL 3 PM. SO THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW
MORE HOURS.
WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO THESE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION BY 3 PM
FOR SURE (IF NOT EARLIER), AS THE STRONGER FORCING WITH THE UPPER
LOW HELPING TO SQUEEZE THIS SNOWFALL OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVES
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA IN MOST MODELS. THIS HAPPENS IN
MOST GUIDANCE BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM. WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR
JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTIES FOR AN UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNING
IF THE BANDING THERE PERSISTS UNTIL CLOSER TO 3 PM RATHER THAN
NOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS LOW (20-40%).
MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF OUTSIDE, GIVEN THE AIR TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THEY SHOULD CLIMB
SOME, BUT CLOUD COVER AND ADDITIONAL FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
(ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65) SHOULD NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
MUCH. ADD IN WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THIS MORNING WIND CHILLS COULD STILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND
-5 DEGREES, BUT SHOULD SLIGHTLY RISE INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE
RANGE WEST OF I-65 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER EAST SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 5 DEGREES FOR WIND CHILLS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND -5 TO 5 DEGREE WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL FINALLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS, THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENTLY LONG PERIOD
OF INSOLATION TO SUPPORT TEMPS WARMING INTO THE L-M 30S AS WINDS
DIMINISH. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z MONDAY, CLOUD LAYERS ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/LOWER, AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
TIMEFRAME FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW FLURRIES. HOWEVER, THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS AS IF IT WILL REMAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM ON MONDAY, WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE ONSET OF
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUPPORTING HIGHS OF 45-50F. RETURN FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH LOWS WARMING
INTO THE U20S-L30S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WARMING TREND (IN PROGRESS AT THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD) WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, AS A
DECAYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH
REGION. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN THAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, ONLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO MEAGER TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM NW-TO-
SE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A COOLER/DRIER
CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION. THIS AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN INTACT FROM WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
SLOWLY MODIFYING HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE WESTERN GULF, WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE L-M 40S AND
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE L-M 20S. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
INTO THE U40S-L50S ON FRIDAY DUE TO A MODEST INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
ON AND OFF FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AND SO WILL THE GUSTY NNW WINDS. SUSTAINED 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO ~25KTS ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY LOWER TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR KMSL, BUT NOT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR KHSV.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALZ008>010.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ097.
NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...JMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page