602
FXUS64 KHUN 010557
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 813 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5F AND +5F.
- WINDS DIMINISH ON SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW AREAS REACHING ABOVE
FREEZING BRIEFLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT WITH MILDER AIR ARRIVING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 813 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A POTENT UPPER LOW HAS NOW PIVOTED INTO GA AND SC. THIS IS
PRODUCING STRONG DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. A
LONG AND WIDENING FETCH OF CLOUDS EXTENDS NORTH FROM AL AND GA
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES PERSISTS IN THIS
BAND DESPITE TD DEPRESSIONS OF 10-18F AT THE SURFACE AND CLOUD
BASES OF 030-050AGL. THERE ARE A FEW CEILINGS LOWER THAN 030AGL IN
TN WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
NORTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SLOWLY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL DROP
INTO SOUTHEAST TX AND LA BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF AMERICA BY SUNDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, A 5H CLIPPER WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT SHIFTING EAST INTO THE OH AND LOWER TN VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GENERATE A BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
THE CLOUDS WILL CLIP OUR AREA, BUT OUR LOWER ATMOSPHERE APPEARS
FAR TOO DRY TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY, ERODING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. DEPENDING ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS, SUNSHINE ABUNDANCE MAY
DICTATE WHETHER AREAS REACH ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 813 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S, MONDAY WILL
SEE YET MORE IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST FLOW FROM
8H-5H WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. 8H TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 0-4C RANGE OVER THE TN
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AS A RESULT (LOWER 40S ATOP THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU). THE
RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WAVE DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH THE LOWER
MO VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING
MULTI-WAVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND OZARKS, WHICH SHOULD MERGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 40-50KT 8H JET WILL COEXIST WITH A
THERMAL/MOIST AXIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS, SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MILDER HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ARE FORECAST
WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 813 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF AL AND INTO GA BRINGING AN END TO THE LIGHT RAIN FROM
OVERNIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WE REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE LOWER 20S, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN WINDS GUSTING 15-20 MPH AT TIMES BRINGING WIND CHILLS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER TEENS. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST KEEPING BOTH THE COLD AIR AND THE PRECIP WELL TO OUR
NORTH. WEAK RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY MASSIVE
WARMUP. THAT BEING SAID, AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RETURN
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
CLOUD DECK STREAMING SOUTHWARD IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES AT
KHSV. KMSL IS CURRENTLY ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK BUT WITH
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS, EXPECT MSL TO SEE SOME FLURRIES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FINALLY SLACK
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE MORNING TO
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.
TN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...JMS
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