941
FXUS64 KHUN 021614
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1014 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
A NOT AS CHILLY START TO THE DAY AND START OF A NEW WORK WEEK,
WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDS NOW
EAST OF THE AREA AND THE RETURN OF DIRECT SUN, 9 AM TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 30S AND LIGHT SW WINDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED OVER THE NE GULF COAST SHOULD BUILD MORE TO THE EAST,
REACHING THE GA/FL COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INDUCE A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 50, WITH SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
SCATTERED HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF
THE MAIN POLAR JET SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALSO
BROAD UPGLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, EAST OF AN APPROACHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS FORMING TO OUR WEST. THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT REACH THE
AREA TONIGHT, BUT INCREASING MID AND LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS
THAT SYSTEM NEARS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL FROM THE MID/UPPER
20S EAST TO LOWER 30S WEST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THE AFORMENTIONED SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA A COUPLE
OF HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN A LATER START OF THE SHOWERS, WILL
MAINTAIN AN ALL LIQUID PHASE OF PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S. ALTHOUGH MODEST TO STRONG SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHOWERS, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY LOW, THUS NO
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. THE NEW BLENDS HAVE COME IN WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1/2", UP FROM
AROUND 1/3". THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE A LONG-TERM DRY SPELL
THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN IN.
A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WNW-ESE
MANNER ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SHOWERS ENDING
LIKEWISE. THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WELL AFTER THE
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED, THUS NO WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS TUE
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 30S. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS LOOK TO
PERSIST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. WITH
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S, WITH NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.
COLDER WED NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 801 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
AFTER THE TROUGH AND FRONT THAT BRINGS RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST, DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE POSITION IN THE ROCKIES SHIFTING INTO
PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH NO BITTERLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED, A ROLLER
COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR, WITH INTERVALS OF MODERATE
WARMING AND COOLING. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THURSDAY, READINGS REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FRIDAY, THEN DROP
BACK INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SATURDAY. THEN ITS BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY. WITH A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS AND DRY AIR,
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DIP BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MID-MORNING, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS WILL THEN RETURN THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS (OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 35
KNOTS) AT MSL BY 8Z. LLWS MAY BECOME A CONCERN AT HSV BY AROUND
12Z TUESDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...26
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