220
FXUS64 KHUN 031122
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
522 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 352 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
- HIGH CHANCES OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE EARLY
WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS TRANSITIONING INTO SNOW FLURRIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30S, WITH A FEW SPOTS OVER
NORTHEAST ALABAMA IN THE 20S. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE REMAINED
LARGE ENOUGH AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT TO KEEP FOG OR FREEZING
FOG AT A MINIMUM. VERY LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR TO OUR
WEST OVER THE ARKLAMISS, BUT NOTHING SO FAR FOR OUR LOCAL AREA.
THE CAMS HAVE CAPTURED THIS ACTIVITY WELL AND CONCUR THAT RAINFALL
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN
OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE FORECASTS REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, NORTHWEST FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BACK
TO THE WSW BY SUNRISE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO. A
WEAKER LOWER-LATITUDE DISTURBANCE (RESPONSIBLE FOR A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLIER TODAY) WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW AROUND
THE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. IN THE LOWER-LEVELS, A CALM-LIGHT SSW
WIND IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, AS THE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS,
AND THIS (ALONG WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/DENSITY OF
HIGH CLOUDS) SHOULD LARGELY PREVENT CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING MIST AND FOG AS DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS CONTRACT.
NEVERTHELESS, SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WIND-
SHELTERED LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THE INITIAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY BUT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS A SERIES OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION OF A BROADER POSITIVE-TILT LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME
(ESPECIALLY AS THE DECAYING SURFACE LOW TRAVELS EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON), AND THIS
WILL SUSTAIN AN AXIS OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
CWFA AS EARLY AS 15-18Z. RAINFALL WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON (WHEN A FEW HEAVIER CONVECTIVE-TYPE SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE). DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES FROM A WARMER START TO
THE DAY/MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON, HIGHS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE OBSERVED TODAY (L-M
50S).
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWESTERN/TRAILING
EDGE OF THE AXIS OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW. HOWEVER, AS
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST, VERY LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE INITIAL WAVE AND SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL AL/WEST-CENTRAL GA. THIS REGIME MAY
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA) AS
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO
SUPPORT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
DEPTH OF A COLD AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION EXPECTED TO INCREASE
WITH TIME AS THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TRAVELS SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS GA, THIS WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO SNOW
FLURRIES, AND ALTHOUGH POPS ARE QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT, IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE RISK FOR LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECTIVELY FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER TEENS-LOWER 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE U30S-L40S LATER IN THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER (BUT STILL IN
THE L-M 20S) THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANT ARCTIC HIGH DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING COLD CORE VORTEX AND SURFACE
LOW IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, AS GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING COLD CORE VORTEX ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS KEEPING
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD/DRY AIRMASS CONFINED TO OUR IMMEDIATE
NORTHEAST. THAT SAID, ANY FLUCTUATION IN THE POSITION OF THE POLAR
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA), BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE PREDICTING HIGHS
TO REMAIN IN THE M-U 50S AS LOWS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 30S BY
MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
FOR INCLUSION OF PERHAPS A LOW POP, AS IT APPEARS AS IF LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME TO THE
EAST OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES BRINGING LOWER CIGS AS WELL AS HIGH CHANCES
(70-100%) OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER VIS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. IN ADDITION, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BUT BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF BY MID-EVENING. ALTHOUGH, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE RAIN
MAY ACTUALLY TRANSITION TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
VERSUS CEASE ALTOGETHER. OVERALL, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO QUICKLY
PLUMMET TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER REDUCE TO LIFR THIS
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26/70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page