911
FXUS64 KHUN 031738
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
- HIGH CHANCES OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- LIGHT DRIZZLE/VERY LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE L50S-M50S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP PERSISTING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER NE MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ENTERING NW ALABAMA WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH QPF TOTALS OF 0.5"-0.75" FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION, BEFORE CHANCES BEGIN TO WANE (20%-30%)
FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M30S-U30S
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
WORK TO KEEP THE REGION COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
L40S-M40S. CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE L20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS NW FLOW CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE L40S-M40S. CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY IN THE M20S-U20S THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE U50S AS HIGH
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FRIDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE U20S-L30S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, AS GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING COLD CORE VORTEX ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS KEEPING
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD/DRY AIRMASS CONFINED TO OUR IMMEDIATE
NORTHEAST. THAT SAID, ANY FLUCTUATION IN THE POSITION OF THE POLAR
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA), BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE PREDICTING HIGHS
TO REMAIN IN THE M-U 50S AS LOWS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 30S BY
MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
FOR INCLUSION OF PERHAPS A LOW POP, AS IT APPEARS AS IF LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME TO THE
EAST OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED LATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
AN UPPER WAVE DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS
OVER THE MSL TERMINAL. REDUCTIONS TO IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR
20KTS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN LATE THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM....AM
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page