426
FXUS64 KHUN 032341
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
541 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
- HIGH CHANCES OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- LIGHT DRIZZLE/VERY LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0.5" ALTHOUGH
SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 0.75". RAINFALL
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE
CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE RISK OF LOWER VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY
IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AS CLOUD BASES DROP BELOW 500FT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CASE ANY
FOG RELATED HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
WORK TO KEEP THE REGION COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
L40S-M40S. CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE L20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS NW FLOW CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE L40S-M40S. CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY IN THE M20S-U20S THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE U50S AS HIGH
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FRIDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE U20S-L30S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, AS GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING COLD CORE VORTEX ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS KEEPING
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD/DRY AIRMASS CONFINED TO OUR IMMEDIATE
NORTHEAST. THAT SAID, ANY FLUCTUATION IN THE POSITION OF THE POLAR
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA), BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE PREDICTING HIGHS
TO REMAIN IN THE M-U 50S AS LOWS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID 30S BY
MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
FOR INCLUSION OF PERHAPS A LOW POP, AS IT APPEARS AS IF LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME TO THE
EAST OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS LOWERED CLOUD CEILINGS INFLUENCE THE TN VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE AREA IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS (BY 03-05Z) AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE.
HOWEVER, WE ARE MONITORING A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG
FORMATION. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....AM
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...HC
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