750
FXUS64 KHUN 040945
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
345 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 345 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
- LIGHT DRIZZLE/VERY LOW CLOUDS COUPLED WITH PATCHY TO DENSE FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ARE FAIRLY WARM (COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS) WITH
VALUES IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES! HOWEVER, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SINCE A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AT PRESENT. WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS A BIT WARMER THAN
FORECAST, DID MODIFY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TO BETTER CAPTURE CURRENT CONDITIONS. THUS, THINKING
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S (WEST) TO LOWER
40S (EAST) THROUGH DAWN. ADDITIONALLY, CONTINUING TO MONITOR LOW
VISIBILITIES, AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS. SEVERAL SITES HAVE DROPPED TO
1-3 MILES, WITH A FEW OTHER SITES OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE A BIT LOWER TO BETWEEN 0.25-1 MILES. SO
FAR, DENSE FOG HAS NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN CASE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG WHILE
TRAVELING, MAKE SURE TO USE LOW BEAMS AND KEEP PLENTY OF DISTANCE
IN FRONT OF YOU!
MIST AND/OR DRIZZLE WERE OBSERVED AT MANY SITES LAST EVENING, BUT
HAS SINCE TAPERED A BIT. INSTANCES OF DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE THIS
MORNING BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. A DREARY DAY IS
AHEAD AS LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S.
FURTHERMORE, WITH FROPA, IT'LL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH.
AFTER TODAY, DRIER WEATHER AND CLEARER SKIES ARE ON THE HORIZON,
SO STAY TUNED!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
UNDER NORTHWESTERN FLOW, COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S. THE STOUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE TN VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ON FRIDAY, A
WARMING TREND BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS
HIGHS WARM INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MAIN FEATURE
IN THE LONG TERM TO MONITOR WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION. IF THIS FRONT SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWARD THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEK. AT THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD INTO MID WEEK, WE
ARE MONITORING RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED IN GLOBAL MODELS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
CURRENT RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF
LGT-MOD RA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF LGT DZ
BENEATH A LAYER OF IFR-LEVEL STRATUS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST
10Z (PERHAPS LONGER), RESULTING IN MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS ~3SM. AS A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW (CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MS/WEST-CENTRAL
AL) SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN SC, NNW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN,
ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL PROFILES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BEGINNING LATE
WED MORNING. EVEN WITH THE BASE OF THE STRATUS LAYER RISING TO
1500-2500 FT, A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTN HOURS,
BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS. ALTHOUGH
THE MVFR STRATUS LAYER MAY EXIST THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WE WILL INDICATE A CLEARING TREND BY 4Z AT BOTH AIRPORTS.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...70
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