289
FXUS64 KHUN 041600
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1000 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING.
- LIGHT DRIZZLE/VERY LOW CLOUDS COUPLED WITH PATCHY TO DENSE FOG
WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
A COLD FRONT HAD FINALLY PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 6 AM.
DESPITE THAT, PLENTY OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT EITHER SIDE
OF FRONT PERSISTED, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN LOW CLOUD, DRIZZLE AND
FOG IMPACTS. THE FOG HAS BEEN DENSE IN A NUMBER OF PLACES, THUS
HAVE EXPANDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WESTWARD TO INCLUDE LIMESTONE,
MORGAN, CULLMAN COUNTIES, AND EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TILL
11 AM CST. SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATED A BROAD ISENTROPIC
DOWN GLIDE OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS (285-290K) ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, WHICH SHOULD BRING
IMPROVEMENTS WITH FOG ACROSS THE AREA AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS MORE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE, MAKING FOR A
CLOUDY DAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CONDENSATION FROM IT
HELPING TO KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE, A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S, WITH NW
WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, AS COLDER AIR FROM THE NW
FILTERS ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL MAINLY INTO THE
LOWER 20S. A NW WIND OF 5-15 MPH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS STIRRED UP
AND INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
DRIER AIR FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE FILTERING IN, WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN CLOUDS FINALLY FADING AND MORE DIRECT SUN RETURNING
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE SUN, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP
CONTINUE CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING MOSTLY INTO
THE LOWER 40S AND NW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH. COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. A NOTICEABLE WARMER TREND
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS
HIGHS WARM INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MAIN FEATURE
IN THE LONG TERM TO MONITOR WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION. IF THIS FRONT SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWARD THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEK. AT THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD INTO MID WEEK, WE
ARE MONITORING RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED IN GLOBAL MODELS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
LOW CLOUDS LEADING TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH INSTANCES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION, DENSE
FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
(INCLUDING THE HSV TERMINAL) TO 1/4MI AT TIMES THROUGH 14Z. BY
THIS AFTERNOON, ANY FOG WILL HAVE DISSIPATED WITH CIGS BEGINNING
TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH, MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS LOOK TO START BREAKING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 14-18
KNOTS. WINDS SLIGHTLY DECREASE TONIGHT, BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 17-18 KNOTS (PERHAPS A TOUCH HIGHER OVER
THE TERRAIN OF NE AL).
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ005-007-
016.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ006-
008>010.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-
097.
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...26
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