646
FXUS64 KHUN 050402
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1002 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1002 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- LOW (15-25%) CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOWS TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. A PERSISTENT, DENSE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK HAS
SLOWLY ERODED TO THE WEST OF I-65 BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW LONG THIS WILL LAST. SATELLITE SHOWS MID LEVEL STRATUS
STREAMING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL TN THAT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD NW AL AGAIN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR THAT
REASON AND BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN HIGH RES GUIDANCE, HAVE
BUMPED TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
BUT DO WANT TO STRESS THAT THE BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DROP WIND
CHILLS INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE THE RETURN OF THE SUN TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FACTOR HERE LOCALLY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS DRIER AIR MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND WE WILL SEE SIMILAR HIGHS TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY,
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL US AND WILL ULTIMATELY
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WITH A FETCH MORE OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH LOWS FALLING IN THE UPPER 20S
TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE TEMPS REBOUND UP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL FEEL QUITE NICE FOR MID TO LATE
WINTER WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH A WEAKER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, COOLING TEMPS BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S ON
SATURDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND WILL BE GOOD NEWS FOR
THOSE THAT ARE READY FOR MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE GULF AND CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
SUNDAY AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WE SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR NOW. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT WE WILL TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TOWARD THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THESE WILL BE TRENDS FOR US TO MONITOR LATER DOWN THE LINE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR ACROSS NORTH AL AS A
LOW STRATUS DECK IS SLOW TO CLEAR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR OVER NW AL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AND FOR HOW LONG. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO IFR OR PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY BEFORE CALMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS ARE
MONITORED THIS EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
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