236
FXUS64 KHUN 051145
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
545 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1002 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- LOW (15-25%) CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AT THE MOMENT. AS THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, WITH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO BUILD
BACK IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA (ESPECIALLY NW AL), LOWS WILL LIKELY
NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS WE THOUGHT PREVIOUSLY. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH
CLOUD COVER, LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
THE CAA FROM NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION, THESE WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COLDER THAN THIS. BY 7AM, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES! THEREFORE, MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP
WELL WITH APPROPRIATE WINTER CLOTHES BEFORE HEADING OUT FOR THE
DAY.
THE THICK STRATUS CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT'LL STILL FEEL LIKE IT'S IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S OUTSIDE. STAY WARM TENNESSEE VALLEY!
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL US AND WILL ULTIMATELY
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WITH A FETCH MORE OUT OF THE
WESTERN GULF/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH LOWS FALLING IN THE UPPER 20S
TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE TEMPS REBOUND UP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL FEEL QUITE NICE FOR MID TO LATE
WINTER WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH A WEAKER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, COOLING TEMPS BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S ON
SATURDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND WILL BE GOOD NEWS FOR
THOSE THAT ARE READY FOR MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE GULF AND CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
SUNDAY AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WE SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR NOW. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT WE WILL TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TOWARD THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THESE WILL BE TRENDS FOR US TO MONITOR LATER DOWN THE LINE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
MVFR CIGS PERSIST THIS MORNING DUE TO A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK
THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER, EXPECTING THIS
CLOUD DECK TO BEGIN TO ERODE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE,
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO
BE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN
FOLLOW EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LLWS
MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT AROUND 7Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS JUST YET. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED AND THIS REASSESSED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26
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