619
FXUS64 KHUN 182352
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
552 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS)
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING.
- A COLDER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NEAR TERM FORECAST
REASONING SINCE THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING, AS DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND A WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS FEATURING TEMPS IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 55-60F
RANGE. ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, CHANCES FOR MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS
(AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING (~3-6Z TIMEFRAME). THIS INCREASE IN WEAK
CONVECTION (INITIATED BY LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS) WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED
FROM MIDDLE TN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PARTS OF VA/NC, BUT
SHOULD ALSO IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA WHERE POPS
REMAIN IN THE 40-60% RANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF 70-80 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, AS
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A FLAT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EQUATORIAL PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. WELL
TO OUR NORTH- NORTHWEST, A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IS
PREDICTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY,
AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH (INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CA/NV) EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WITH AN INCREASING NEGATIVE-TILT. WITHIN THIS GENERAL PATTERN
ALOFT, DEEP-LAYER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BE
SUSTAINED BY MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL PERSIST AS AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW
(RELATED TO THE CLOSED CYCLONE TO OUR NORTH-NORTHWEST) DRIFTS
EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI AND A DEVELOPING LOW
(ACROSS EASTERN CO) SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS.
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 55-60F RANGE, A BROKEN-OVERCAST
COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD, WITH MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, A MORE
CONCENTRATED AXIS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY MATERIALIZE FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN VA, WHICH IS THE REGION WHERE LOW-LEVEL
STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT (RELATED TO THE LOW TO OUR NORTH) AND A NORTHWARD ADVANCING
MARINE WARM FRONT (RELATED TO THE LOW TO OUR WEST). AS A RESULT,
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM VALUES ~10% (THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON)
TO 40-50% (NORTH OF THE TN RIVER) AND 20-30% (SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER) EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, DAYTIME
HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK TO REACH THE M-U 60S, FOLLOWED BY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 55-60F RANGE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (EMERGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD) WILL CONTINUE TO ACQUIRE A SHARP
NEGATIVE-TILT AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT
GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE RELATED SURFACE LOW AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. PERIODS OF BROKEN LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW, AS OUR REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WELL-ESTABLISHED
WARM/MOIST SECTOR AIRMASS. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, CAMS
SUGGEST THAT A FEW OPEN WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE CELLS MAY EVOLVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL, BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
AND POTENTIALLY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OCCURRING WITHIN A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
OF 200-400 J/KG AND WSW FLOW ALOFT OF 70-80 KNOTS ATOP A SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45 KNOTS. THUS, THERE IS A LEAST
SOME CONCERN FOR A MODEST DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION INTO
MULTICELL CLUSTERS, WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR CELLS PRODUCING
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH. THIS GENERAL KINEMATIC
AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THE SPATIAL CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST DURING THE TIME OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE (FROM 6-12Z), AS WELL AS A CONTINUING RISK FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED CELLS.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FURTHER
SOUTHEASTWARD LATE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING ALONG AN AXIS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN TX INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER LATE FRIDAY MORNING, LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S AND A FAIR
COVERAGE OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY
FRIDAY EVENING, A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE TRAVELING INTO CENTRAL AL BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SHALLOW LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
THE FRONT, SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN (AND PERHAPS SOME
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS) FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL FROM THE MID 70S ON THURSDAY
INTO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL FROM THE 55-60F
RANGE INTO THE M-U 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
IT LOOKS LIKE A CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY RE-ENFORCES THIS
SOUTHEASTERN PUSH OF THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER THE AREA AS THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LEFT A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY
BE OVERDONE IF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM IS ON THE DRIER SPECTRUM OF
POSSIBILITIES. THE OTHER QUESTION IS HOW LONG ANY LOW CHANCE (10
TO 30 PERCENT) OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN
IF THAT OCCURS (THOUGH MANY MODELS PUSH ANY PRECIPITATION EAST OF
THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING), THE TEMPERATURES PROFILE ALOFT
LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ON
THE BACK END OF PRECIPITATION FOR A SNOW/RAIN MIX JUST IN CASE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM ON SUNDAY. ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IF IT OCCURS AND SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE AND SOME CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OR LOWER ARE FORECAST. THINKING MODELS ARE
NOT CATCHING UP TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST
YET AND THUS A BIT WARM. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOK EVEN
COLDER, AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHENS (LOW OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD REALLY DROPS ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE
SIGNIFICANTLY AIDING THAT PROCESS) AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S WITH SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP A LITTLE WITH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, BUT
WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO -5 DEGREES CELSIUS, CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MAY BE A BIT WARM AS
WELL. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER TOO, ONLY IN THE 30S MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO QUICKLY MODIFY ON TUESDAY AFTER ONE MORE COLD
NIGHT (LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S). HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
AGAIN, AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS. THIS WARMUP
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO BOTH TERMINALS AROUND
10Z, BUT THAT TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS IN THIS
UPDATE BASED ON EXPECTED PREDOMINANT SW LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN
1000 MB AND 925 MB. AROUND DAYBREAK (11Z TO 15Z), AS THIS BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND FORCING SINKS SOUTHEAST, A PERIOD OF -SHRA
AND MVFR VSBYS COULD ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CIGS (MVFR). HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN -SHRA, SO KEPT PROB30 FOR THAT FOR
NOW. THIS MAY BE MADE MORE PREDOMINANT WITH NEXT ISSUANCE DURING
THAT PERIOD. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
LIFTING AND BECOMING VFR AFTER 21Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW
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