390
FXUS64 KHUN 191035
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
435 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 249 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- A MARGINAL/LOW RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING HAIL.
- A COLDER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A COMBINATION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND
NORTHEAST AL. SHORT RANGE CAMS INDICATE THESE WILL EXIT THIS
MORNING LEAVING A MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 70S, AND PERHAPS MIDDLE 70S IN A FEW SPOTS. AS LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES NORTHEAST FROM KS THROUGH NORTHEAST MO, A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE EAST INTO EASTERN MO AND AR. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT PRODUCING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED. A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS TODAY AROUND 750-800MB WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
CAMS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING FROM MIDDLE TN THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST AL
WHICH WILL EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 07-09Z. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A LIMITED RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY TODAY
GIVEN THE ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN MS, AL AND GA ON
FRIDAY. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY UNDER A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
THE SURFACE THROUGH 8H FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
AL FRIDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES SPEED EAST-NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER FLOW. A SURGE OF 8H FLOW OF 35-40KT WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY EVENING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE OVER
NORTH INTO CENTRAL AL. GIVEN ~300-500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE
THE INVERSION AND VERY ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, THE RISK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK
HAS NOW INCLUDED OUR FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK, PRIMARILY
FOR LARGE HAIL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
AN UPPER LOW COMPLEX NOW OVER THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN, AS
WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE EASTWARD WHILE AMPLIFYING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PRONOUNCED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CONTINENT, WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEING UNDER A NW FLOW ROUNDING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST, MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM, A
SURFACE LOW THAT HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL FRONT RANGE SHOULD
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD FORM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BECOMING A NOR-
EASTER TYPE SYSTEM.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE ONES SATURDAY NIGHT MORE ASSOCIATED WITH A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSING IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WHILE
THIS IS OCCURRING, COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOWS AS THEY
HEAD FURTHER TO THE EAST WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. AS SUCH, A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ANY CHANGEOVER SHOULD BE BRIEF BEFORE IT MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AFTER FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY, HIGHS LATER THAT DAY WILL ONLY RISE MID TO
UPPER 40S. A NW WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER MOST PLACES DESPITE THE SUN RETURNING.
A DRY AND CHILLY PERIOD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK IS
EXPECTED, AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ARCTIC REGIONS NORTH OF ALASKA
AND NW CANADA FILTERS SOUTHWARD. THUS CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS BOTH SUNDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS FALLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 20S. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD STRUGGLE
ONLY INTO THE LOWER 40S. A BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO
AROUND 50. A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WE GO INTO THE
MID WEEK. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE MIDWEEK AS A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR (015-025AGL) AT MUCH OF THE
AREA BY 16Z. CEILINGS SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO VFR NLT 00Z WHEN
SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT 20-25KT TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY 07-09Z SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...17
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