532
FXUS64 KHUN 201042
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
442 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 949 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.
- A COLDER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THESE ARE MOVING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD
FRONT ATTACHED TO A DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS LIGHTNING AND STORM INTENSITY HAD
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED. AS SHOWERS APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR,
THEY ARE COMING IN CONTACT WITH A NARROW NORTHWARD BULGE OF
INSTABILITY WITH SPC MESO ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT AROUND 500 J/KG
OF MUCAPE ARE PRESENT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SHOWER INTENSITY WITH A GUST OF 49 KTS RECORD AT MSL AROUND 2 AM.
WHILE CURRENTLY SHOWERS STILL LACK LIGHTNING IN OUR AREA, CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
EXISTING SHOWERS AS THE BROKEN LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SE. DESPITE
THE ISOLATED HIGHER GUST, WE MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING
(AKA THE WEAK COLD FRONT). GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS,
YET WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE GUSTS.
CAMS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE BROKEN LINE EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA
NEAR SUNRISE. BEHIND THE FRONT, CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY CLEAR
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO HEAT BACK INTO THE MID TO HIGH 60S. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT DESPITE SOME LIGHTER WINDS, WILL NOT COOL
DOWN TOO MUCH AS ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS RETURN. LOWS
SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE PRIMARILY. MEDIUM
TO HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GOOD
SHEAR IS SHOWN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. HOWEVER, MOST
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT REMAINS NEAR AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THAT BEING SAID, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAYBE PRODUCING
GUSTS WINDS AND SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER.
THE APPROACHING FRONT WEAKENS TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY AND
STALLS NEAR THE AREA, BEFORE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS REGIONS
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AGAIN, DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FRONT TO TAP INTO AHEAD OF IT.
MANY MODELS PRODUCE NO PRECIPITATION OR EXTREMELY LOW CHANCES
(<25%) OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT DURING THAT PERIOD. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IF IT OCCURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED EAST
OF THE REGION. IT SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING FURTHER TO THE EAST, AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THIS HIGH ORIGINATING FROM
THE ARCTIC FEATURED MAXIMUM PRESSURE OF 1060 MB CORRECTED TO SEA
LEVEL WHICH IS INDICATIVE THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR
WAY. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN, A CHILLY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES 10 DEGREES OR SO COLDER. AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN, WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
WILL ALSO DROP, FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. WITH COLD AIR FIRMLY IN
PLACE, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. A BIT
COLDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20. NOT AS COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50. THE SURFACE HIGH BY
THIS TIME SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND,
AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ROUNDING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID WEEK BACK
RISING TO AROUND 60. A MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA, AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL RETURN SHOWERS CHANCES
TO THE AREA. NEW OUTPUT FROM THE BLENDS IN THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION THUNDER FREE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS ALSO ON A SLIGHTLY
LATER START. A MILDER TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40S, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT RAIN WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SW LATE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING
EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF IN
SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RAD
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