502
FXUS64 KHUN 210046
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
646 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOW CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
- A COLDER AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TOO MUCH MORE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THESE OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, IT REMAINS FAIRLY DRY, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THUS, THE THINKING FOR RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING
HAS NOT CHANGED. IT LIKELY WILL BEGIN AS VIRGA UNTIL THE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE OVERCOME, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN
(50-80%) FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE EVENING. AS DISCUSSED
PREVIOUSLY, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR, THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IS LOW DUE TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND
MEAGER THERMODYNAMICS. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO
DEVELOP (SHOULD THEY DEVELOP) IS GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING TO OUR SOUTH, THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS
SHIFTED TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY BACK
NORTHWARD LATER THIS EVENING, RAIN CHANCES ARE REINTRODUCED.
HOWEVER, A LARGE DRY LAYER AT THE SFC IS FORECAST WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 20 DEGREES. THEREFORE, DESPITE MODELS SHOWING
RAINFALL SHIFTING BACK IN THE AREA BY 6 PM, IT WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF VIRGA UNTIL THE DRY LAYER CAN BE OVERCOME. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING RAIN OCCURS LATER IN THE EVENING, AROUND 8-10
PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BOTH LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO LOOK INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
STRONGER STORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY EVENING DURING WHICH LOW CHANCES OF
RAIN (20%) ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE CAPPED IN THE 40S, WHICH IS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED EAST
OF THE REGION. IT SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING FURTHER TO THE EAST, AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THIS HIGH ORIGINATING FROM
THE ARCTIC FEATURED MAXIMUM PRESSURE OF 1060 MB CORRECTED TO SEA
LEVEL WHICH IS INDICATIVE THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE HEADING OUR
WAY. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN, A CHILLY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES 10 DEGREES OR SO COLDER. AS THE
HIGH MOVES IN, WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE
WILL ALSO DROP, FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S. WITH COLD AIR FIRMLY IN
PLACE, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. A BIT
COLDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20. NOT AS COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50. THE SURFACE HIGH BY
THIS TIME SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND,
AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ROUNDING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID WEEK BACK
RISING TO AROUND 60. A MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA, AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL RETURN SHOWERS CHANCES
TO THE AREA. NEW OUTPUT FROM THE BLENDS IN THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION THUNDER FREE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS ALSO ON A SLIGHTLY
LATER START. A MILDER TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE 40S, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AT THE HSV/MSL TERMINALS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT, AS ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE DATA AND SFC OBS, WE HAVE INDICATED VFR
CIGS AT FL100 AND LGT SHRA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, WITH
CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO DESCEND FURTHER TO 5KFT BY 2Z CONCURRENT
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHRA. A FEW EMBEDDED
TSRA MAY ALSO OCCUR (PARTICULARLY BTWN 3-7Z), WHICH MAY WARRANT
ISSUANCE OF AWWS FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL
HAIL. AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS EARLY SAT MORNING, CIGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR LEVELS, WITH A FEW LINGERING LGT SHRA AND MINOR VSBY
REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THRU 12Z. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A BKN-
OVC DECK OF LOW/MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO NNW EXPECTED BY 19-20Z.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...HC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...70/DD
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