685
FXUS64 KHUN 210744
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
144 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- A HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD/DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE
SUPPORTED BY THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ALONG THE NW
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS.
LOCALLY, THE PASSING SHORT WAVES SUPPORT BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50
KTS. THIS PAIRED WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (~100-200 J/KG)
HAS ALLOWED LIGHTNING PRODUCTION TO PERSIST WITHIN THE ONGOING
SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY ALL STORMS ARE ELEVATED WITH NO GUSTS NOR
HAIL REPORTED. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NE THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THERMO
PROFILE ARE FORECAST, THUS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE UPPER LIMIT OF
STORM INTENSITY THIS MORNING.
HIRES MODELS MAINTAIN RAIN AND STORMS CLEARING TO THE NE AROUND 8
AM AS FORCING FROM A FRONT TO OUR SOUTH PROGRESSES EAST. IN ITS
WAKE, CLOUD COVER WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE ALLOWING TEMPS TO HEAT
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ON A CONUS SCALE, ADDITIONAL WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVES WILL RIPPLE EAST ACROSS THE COUNTY FROM SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOCALLY, THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND
REINTRODUCE LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%). ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
BE INCREDIBLY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
DEEP-LAYER LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING
COLD CORE VORTEX ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD, ARCTIC AIRMASS (ORIGINATING FROM A
1055-1060 MB ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES) BEGINS
TO ENTER THE REGION, WITH LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN PREDICTED TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS FROM THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE TN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 6Z (IF NOT SOONER), AND ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL OCCUR SHORTLY BEFORE PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO
A RAIN/SNOW MIX, A FEW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE POSTFRONTAL STRATUS LAYER ERODES SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.
STRONG NNW WINDS WILL DRIVE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE
U20S-L30S, WITH ATTENDANT WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE
PARENT ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN ONTARIO
WHILE A SURFACE LOW (INITIALLY NEAR THE COAST OF NC) UNDERGOES
BOMBOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SMALL, BUT WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND AN INTENSIFYING COLD CORE VORTEX TO OUR
NORTHEAST, THE LOCAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, STEEP LAPSE RATES RELATED TO THE COLD
POCKETS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE L-M 40S ON SUNDAY AND MAY NOT SURPASS
THE 35-40F RANGE ON MONDAY (PERHAPS REMAINING NEAR FREEZING ATOP
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE L-M 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT (MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE 5-15F RANGE), WITH CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS-LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST
BEING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVEL FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES SOUTHEASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY, LIGHT SSW RETURN FLOW WILL INITIATE
THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT (RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, A PLUME OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
50S MAY RETURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY PRECEDING CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT, BUT TRENDS
IN THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS BOTH DEEP-LAYER AND LOW- LEVEL
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION
FORECAST REASONING, AND BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE DATA AND
SFC OBS, WE HAVE INDICATED VFR CIGS BTWN 5-10 KFT LGT SHRA AS THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS INITIALLY. A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA MAY ALSO
OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, POTENTIALLY WARRANTING
ISSUANCE OF AWWS FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL
HAIL. THE AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM NW-TO-SE IN
THE 10-14Z TIMEFRAME, AND CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LEVELS IN ITS
WAKE (A CONDITION THAT WILL LAST THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD).
A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO NNW IS EXPECTED BY 19-20Z, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF LGT RA (AND MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS) THAT WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SAT
AFTN BEFORE SPREADING QUICKLY EASTWARD SAT EVENING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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