544
FXUS64 KHUN 211706
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1106 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 943 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-25
MPH.
- VERY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
6-12F EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN AL
AND GA THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, OVERCAST SKIES WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. FURTHER TO OUR WEST, CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RETURNED TO NORTHWEST AL AND NORTHERN MS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY/LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AR AND WESTERN TN
THIS MORNING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
BRINGING BACK A WINTER FEEL TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT LOWS
TO DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(10-20%) OF A LIGHT SHOWER (MAINLY BETWEEN 5PM-10PM), BUT THESE
SHOULD OCCUR WELL BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE WINDS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 MPH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE AMPLE SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY, CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. EXPECT THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDES UP
INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 6F-12F. MAKE SURE TO GRAB YOUR WINTER COAT AND WEAR
MULTIPLE LAYERS TO STAY WARM AS YOU HEAD OUT THE DOOR MONDAY
MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IT WILL FEEL
EVEN COLDER. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THE WINDS CHILLS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AIR
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST
BEING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVEL FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES SOUTHEASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY, LIGHT SSW RETURN FLOW WILL INITIATE
THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT (RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, A PLUME OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
50S MAY RETURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY PRECEDING CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT, BUT TRENDS
IN THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS BOTH DEEP-LAYER AND LOW- LEVEL
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT GUST 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES. WHILE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER BETWEEN 23Z-04Z THIS EVENING, HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...GH
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