360
FXUS64 KHUN 220004
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
604 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 943 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING 20-25
MPH.
- VERY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
6-12F EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW, SOME VIRGA CAN BE SEEN ALOFT,
BUT NO OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND.
AN AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS. JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, WINDS ARE
GUSTING 15-20 MPH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AS THIS AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY FALL DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20 TO LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE RIPPLES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE AMPLE SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY, CAA AND GRADIENT WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. EXPECT THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE DEEP LOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDES UP
INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 6F-12F. MAKE SURE TO GRAB YOUR WINTER COAT AND WEAR
MULTIPLE LAYERS TO STAY WARM AS YOU HEAD OUT THE DOOR MONDAY
MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IT WILL FEEL
EVEN COLDER. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THE WINDS CHILLS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AIR
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LATEST EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST
BEING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVEL FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES SOUTHEASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY, LIGHT SSW RETURN FLOW WILL INITIATE
THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT (RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH) AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, A PLUME OF DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
50S MAY RETURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY PRECEDING CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT, BUT TRENDS
IN THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS BOTH DEEP-LAYER AND LOW- LEVEL
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION. A SLIGHTLY
COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TO END THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
BROKEN-OVERCAST LAYERS OF AS WILL CONTINUE AT THE MSL/HSV
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING, AS ATMOSPHERIC LIFT STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
TN INTO NORTH TX). ALTHOUGH LIGHT RETURNS IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY
DATA MAY YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN, MUCH OF THIS WILL OCCUR AS
VIRGA, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SFC LOCATED ACROSS TN. SKC CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 3Z/MSL
AND 4Z/HSV AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD, BUT A POCKET OF
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED COLD AIR
STRATOCU ONCE AGAIN BY 15Z. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NNW
FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS OF 10G20 KTS
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 14G24 KTS AFTER SUNRISE.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM...GH
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD
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