925
FXUS64 KHUN 230419
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1019 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
- VERY COLD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS-LOWER 20S, AND WIND CHILLS OF 5-15F EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY (BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE
HIGH CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY).
NEAR TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING MID-LEVEL VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT, WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRAVELING IN THE FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE
ADVANCING RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST OF SC BY 12Z. IN SPITE OF DRY
PROFILES ALOFT, LIFT RELATED TO THIS DISTURBANCE HAS SUPPORTED
MINOR SATURATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE, RESULTING IN
SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF AN OVERCAST STRATUS LAYER INTO THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWFA. ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES COULD CERTAINLY
OCCUR BENEATH THIS CLOUD DECK (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF
LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINES AND RESULTANT OROGRAPHIC ASCENT), BASE
REFLECTIVITY DATA SUGGESTS THAT FLURRIES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
THE IMMEDIATE NORTH/EAST OF OUR REGION. THE PRESENCE OF THE CLOUDS
MAY HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IF THEY SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH 12Z, BUT WITH ADVECTION BEING THE MAIN SOURCE OF
COOLING TONIGHT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS- LOWER 20S (SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER). DUE
TO A CONTRACTED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS
MB/ON AND A WINTER BOMB CYCLONE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, NNW
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE (GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH),
AND THIS WILL CREATE MORNING WIND CHILLS OF 5-15F.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
(ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA) WILL ERODE LATE
MONDAY MORNING, AND WITH ONLY A FEW COLD AIR STRATOCU, SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, NNW WINDS AND
COLD ADVECTION WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG UNTIL A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN AR LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN ELEVATED
TERRAIN TO THE M-U 30S IN THE VALLEY.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY (IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP COLD CORE VORTEX
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC). IN THE LOW-
LEVELS, A SURFACE RIDGE (INITIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AR) WILL DEVELOP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS)
PROMOTING A RADIATIONAL FREEZE AND LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
TEENS-LOWER 20S (BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO WIND). AS THE WEAKENING
ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY, LOW-LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING TO THE U40S-L50S
EVEN WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALOFT.
AS THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW (ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY)
BEGINS TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OH VALLEY, FORCING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO VEER TO THE SW ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A NOTABLE INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RETURN OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE TN-KY
BORDER, IN RESPONSE TO A 500-MB TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS WHEN 850-MB WINDS WILL BACK
TO SW AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RECOVER INTO THE U50S-L60S
ON WEDNESDAY, AS LOWS RISE BACK INTO THE U40S-L50S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN ELONGATED AND
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH (ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD) MAY UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS
IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, IN WHICH PORTION OF THE TROUGH THIS OCCURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A CONSOLIDATED
SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
55-60F RANGE. AT SOME POINT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, FORCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE FOCUSED AXIS OF MODERATE-
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY LOW CAPE BUT
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (HIGHLIGHTED BY A SW LOW-LEVEL JET OF
45-55 KNOTS), THIS MAY YIELD AN EVENT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST THURSDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BAND OF SHOWERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. AND, AS NOTED IN THE LATEST
EXTENDED RANGE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC, LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
SEVERE WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT, EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID-ALANTIC STATES. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN IN THE L-M 60S BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO THE U60S-L70S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING,
OVERNIGHT, AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY UNDERNEATH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...AMP
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