710
FXUS64 KHUN 231710
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1110 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1036 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS UP TO BETWEEN 20-25 MPH.
- VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING INCREASE TO
HIGH CHANCES ON THURSDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AND CHILLY THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE
HIGH PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT WILL
ALSO BE PRETTY DRY, WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS THROUGH THE DAY (LEADING
TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID 20 TO MID 30 PERCENT
RANGE). WHAT'S INTERESTING IS THAT, EVEN THOUGH IT IS SO DRY,
THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLURRIES IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA, MAINLY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY. THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND ELEVATED
WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM COLDER. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S, IT'LL FEEL CLOSER TO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF YOU HEAD OUTSIDE THIS MORNING
AND PLAN FOR THE COLDER WEATHER IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON!
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS THEN ON TAP FOR TONIGHT, AS CAA FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. SKIES WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY CLEAR, SO THAT
WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
FORECAST LOWS ARE THUS STILL EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS
(ESPECIALLY OVER NE AL AND INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN) TO LOWER 20S
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS LATE
TONIGHT. SO, WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING. EVEN SO, MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP
AND REMEMBER SPACE HEATER SAFETY IF YOU USE ONE TO KEEP WARM
TONIGHT. KEEP 3 FEET OF SPACE AROUND SPACE HEATERS AT ALL TIMES,
DON'T LEAVE THEM RUNNING WHILE YOU'RE AWAY OR ASLEEP, AND MAKE
SURE TO PLUG THEM DIRECTLY INTO A WALL OUTLET (DO NOT USE AN
EXTENSION CORD).
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO BE MORE ZONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO PIVOT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND APPROACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS THEREFORE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS (30-60%) THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. IN ADDITION, EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH FORECAST HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (AS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER BELOW) DUE TO
MODEL BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS SYSTEM; BUT, AT THIS POINT, INSTABILITY
LOOKS VERY MEAGER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (LESS THAN 200 J/KG OF
CAPE). IN FACT, MODEL PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GREATER THAN 100 J/KG
ARE LESS THAN 10% OVER NW AL (COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN OUR FORECAST). THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH THURSDAY CLOSELY AS NBM PROBABILITIES OF INSTABILITY
GREATER THAN 300 J/KG ARE BETWEEN 20-40% ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TN RIVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY, AS OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES.
ULTIMATELY, STAY WEATHER AWARE AND STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS WE
GET CLOSER AND FINER DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
EXTENDED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN ELONGATED AND
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH (ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD) MAY UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS
IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, IN WHICH PORTION OF THE TROUGH THIS OCCURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A CONSOLIDATED
SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
55-60F RANGE. AT SOME POINT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, FORCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE FOCUSED AXIS OF MODERATE-
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY LOW CAPE BUT
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (HIGHLIGHTED BY A SW LOW-LEVEL JET OF
45-55 KNOTS), THIS MAY YIELD AN EVENT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED LAST THURSDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BAND OF SHOWERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. AND, AS NOTED IN THE LATEST
EXTENDED RANGE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC, LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
SEVERE WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT, EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID-ALANTIC STATES. HIGHS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN IN THE L-M 60S BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO THE U60S-L70S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL, WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 18-25 KNOTS. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...26
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