792
FXUS64 KHUN 240359
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
959 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING INCREASE TO
HIGH CHANCES ON THURSDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING,
WITH SATELLITE REVEALING CLEAR CONDITIONS AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA
SHOWING WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO RELAX UNDER 5 KTS. SOME LOW
STRATUS WAS NOTED ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE, JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST.
WHILE A FEW OF THESE CLOUDS WILL CLIP OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONE
OVERNIGHT, CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN CONTROL.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY IN THIS DRY AIR MASS, WITH LOWS
EVENTUALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SOME
WELCOME NEWS FOR TUESDAY IS THAT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH,
HELPING TO MODIFY THIS AIR MASS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON
UNDERNEATH A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EVOLVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTH AND EAST. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD HELP TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S BY
THE AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID
SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOW-MEDIUM (30-60%)CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS (80-90% CHANCE) ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-55 KTS WILL SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MEAGER.
LREF PROBS INDICATE 20-40% OF EXCEEDING 100 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
ONLY AROUND 10-15% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 200 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
FACTORING IN THE POOR LAPSE RATES, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR PROFILE, A COUPLE OF LOCALLY STRONG STORMS MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, OTHER THAN A DROP IN DEWPOINTS THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS AS WE RETURN IN A FAIRLY ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT. AS A RESULT, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT THE MSL/HSV TERMINALS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH A NNW WIND THAT WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE
5-10 KT RANGE THIS EVENING. WITH STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, A MINOR INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF HIGH-LVL CLOUDS IS
ANTICIPATED BY 8Z WITH BKN-OVC CONDS DEVELOPING BY 16Z. ALTHOUGH A
SFC HIGH SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN INTO
THE EASTERN GULF WILL INDUCE A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS BTWN 8-16Z,
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO LARGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
FZBR/FG (EXCEPT FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 12Z AND IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LARGE WATER SOURCES). A SSW WIND OF 8G16 KTS
WILL MATERIALIZE BEYOND 16Z AS A DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKS EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN SK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
THE WEAKENING HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST RETREATS FURTHER ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...70
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